Viewpoints

Backtesting can reveal powerful insights—or create dangerous illusions. In Part I of our mini-series, we show how biases and shortcuts can inflate results, using a simple momentum strategy as an example. Learn why careful design matters before moving from simulation to real-world investing.

With rising temperatures, many investors are drawn to companies that offer adaptation solutions. While adaptation is essential, mitigating climate change and decarbonizing the economy also remain vital. Discover where adaptation and mitigation intersect – particularly in the realm of cooling – and how they can interact to create a more sustainable world.

As investors face tariffs, muted growth, and geopolitical risk, the Fixed Income team explains how emerging-market investment-grade bonds can provide yield and global diversification.

International equities offer long-term structural growth opportunities. Europe is undergoing an economic transformation through defense, technology, and infrastructure investments. In our view, rising US risks, like fiscal deficits, underscore the need for diversification.

How can machine learning ensembles be built in practice? From Bagging and Boosting to Stacking, this article explores different ensemble strategies and the role of model diversity. We also examine how ensembles are being applied in financial forecasting, drawing on both academic research and industry experience. Discover how combining models tends to deliver stronger, more resilient predictions in finance.

Why rely on one model when many do better? By combining multiple forecasts, ensembles tend to deliver more accurate and resilient results. This first article in our two-part series explores the theory behind model ensembles, linking classic forecasting research with today’s financial machine learning. Discover why combining models consistently outperforms relying on a single predictor.

Has the energy transition stalled due to weakening US policy support? We don’t believe so. In our view, this negative narrative is overly exaggerated and fails to recognize the increasing use of certain mature renewable technologies due to their strategic importance, economic competitiveness, faster implementation and limited technology risks.

FX is fragmented by nature — and that’s exactly what makes it valuable. Our latest Quanta Byte explores how FX trends offer independent return streams that passive hedging misses. Discover what happens when FX diversification starts doing more than just reducing volatility.

Markets inevitably shift, but global diversification endures. A thoughtfully constructed portfolio that combines leading US and non-US companies can offer meaningful advantages to long-term investors: enhanced performance potential, compelling valuations and access to growth industries where the US lags.

Our research shows sectors deliver both top and bottom returns, while factors—especially Quality, Dividend Strength and Minimum Volatility—offer more predictable, diversified, and stable performance. We use sectors tactically based on business cycle signals, but our strategic focus remains firmly on factors for consistent, risk-adjusted returns. Discover the Hybrid Investment team’s view on Minimum Volatility equity strategies over the business cycle at the Quantitative Investment Boutique.

Quitting is often misunderstood as weakness. But in investing, selling is the overlooked half of decision-making, hindered by biases like sunk cost fallacy or FOMO. In our view, knowing when to walk away is essential for preserving capital and seizing better opportunities.

The pace of progress in AI is extraordinary. But will it displace popular music or broader media in the near term? We continue to monitor developments closely, particularly in hybrid human-AI creative workflows, evolving rights frameworks, and new monetization models that could shift competitive dynamics over time.

Are there lessons we can already learn from April’s blackout in Spain and Portugal? We believe so. Electrification lies at the heart of the energy transition. With increased investment, resilience can improve and alongside increased storage capacity, we can unlock the potential of the grid.

In our latest Quality Conversations videos, discover how quality companies—those with strong franchises, pricing power, and unlevered balance sheets—can thrive in uncertain markets. By navigating inflation, shifting economic cycles, and interest rate volatility, these "masters of their own destiny" appear to offer resilience and long-term growth potential.

The US dollar’s reign is faltering, and we believe a prolonged dollar bear market is underway – a scenario that has historically been a tailwind for emerging market economic growth and asset valuations. However, not all emerging equity markets respond equally to the dollar’s decline.

From deep dives into state and federal probes, to conversations with corporate clients and health plan auditors, our investigative analyst helped identify early warning signs of UnitedHealth Group’ s shift from market leader to a company facing regulatory liability. This case study highlights the benefits that former investigative journalists bring to the Quality Growth research process.

The AI boom has increased demand for data centers, but US electric utilities lack the capacity to power them. This has led to a rise in self-generation solutions, benefiting companies like Schneider Electric and National Grid. The issue was a key theme at the recent Data Center Dynamics trade show.

Adaptation solutions are becoming more popular given the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events. While we see the benefits, we urge investors to remember that prevention is better than cure, and mitigation remains vital if we are to ensure a better future for all.

Uncertainty and volatility in today’s environment have highlighted the benefits of our disciplined Quality Growth philosophy, focused on proven businesses with inherent resilience and durability. Given the narrow tailwinds from the prior two years, select quality companies are attractively valued given their defensive growth characteristics.

As the exuberance we’ve seen over the past few years fades, our Quality Growth team looks to find resilience in industries that are shielded from the effects of tariffs and the volatility around AI.

Emerging market (EM) equities are more domestically driven than commonly assumed. Companies in the MSCI EM Index derive over 60% of revenues in their home markets. And they could further reduce their dependence on exports in the future. We illustrate the reasons.

Investigative analyst Zhen Li recently attended the Shanghai’s second Global Developer Conference. Zhen’s on-the-ground research reveals concerns about the viability and sustainability of DeepSeek’s model given the intense competition in China's AI sector and lack of clarity around monetization of AI models.

Traditional volatility models often lag real market shifts, leaving portfolios vulnerable. Our new Quanta Byte introduces State-dependent Risk (SDR) - a dynamic approach that adapts faster to evolving conditions. By leveraging historical patterns and similarity measures, SDR more accurately forecasts volatility, helping investors navigate risk and protect their ascent.

Challenging entrenched biases, this special International Women's Day Quanta Byte decodes the myth of meritocracy in finance. Featuring insights from Prof. Renée Adams and Ola Mahmoud, discover how data dismantles stereotypes and reveals why perceptions of women in finance often stray from reality.