Viewpoints

Energy sovereignty efforts and competitiveness are fostering the transition from a system based on finite, extracted resources with volatile prices to one centered on generated technologies with decreasing costs as production scales. Investing in the full spectrum with an active approach offers the opportunity to accelerate the transition and share in its rewards.

Artificial intelligence (AI) may be one of the greatest technological breakthroughs, but it’s too early to tell. History shows that investment returns don’t always match innovation hype. However, we do know that economic fundamentals have not changed, which means that investments must become self-financing and deliver adequate returns to be sustainable.

Vontobel’s Ed Walczak is among a small number of portfolio managers active today who were also managing money during the dot-com bubble. Ed compares the two time periods and explains how having zero exposure in tech and telecom in the dot-com era, while unpopular, rewarded his investors.

Emerging market equities enjoyed an impressive year but have investors missed the boat? We don’t think so. In fact, we believe 2025 marked the first year of positive change for at least two key structural factors, which could spark the beginning of a new positive cycle for EM equities.

As we approach 2026, high equity valuations, shifting inflation dynamics, and rising cross-asset dispersion are reshaping the investment landscape. With traditional portfolio strategies like the 60/40 model facing new challenges, diversification is becoming a practical necessity. The Solutions team explores how these structural shifts are driving the return of the multi-asset cycle and what it means for investors navigating this new market regime.

AI is expanding what systematic investing can achieve — from unlocking deeper insights in complex data to building more adaptive, responsive portfolios. This piece explores the shift from classical quant to Quant 2.0 and what a more adaptive, data-driven future could look like.

Government bonds are primarily driven by moves in their underlying interest rates – and these rates are highly correlated. In this QuantaByte, we show how correlated interest rates really are, and what conclusions an investor can draw to tackle this problem.

Discover how developed and emerging market corporate bonds may offer stability, diversification, and alpha opportunities. With yields at multi-year highs and improving fundamentals, our experts believe now is the time to unlock the hidden potential of corporate bonds in your portfolio.

AI models don’t have to be black boxes. In the final article of our Expl(AI)ning series, discover how SHAP values reveal the contributions behind model predictions, enhancing transparency and trust in AI-powered investing. See how we use these insights within our AI Powered process.

Rising concentration in the S&P 500 has made markets more sensitive to a handful of mega-cap stocks driving performance. While technology remains dominant, this imbalance raises questions around volatility, diversification, and market resilience. The Solutions team explores how concentration has evolved and what it means for investors navigating today’s equity landscape.

Leaders in the video game industry, such as Tencent Holdings, NetEase, and Capcom, offer a distinct blend of predictability and growth through a combination of "Evergreen" titles and new game pipelines. These firms have generated recurring revenues and compounded earnings at approximately 20% annually over the past decade.

Can the top 2% make all the difference? The quantitative team tested an AI-powered stock picker across 20 years of data. By analysing hit rates alongside market concentration and dispersion, they uncovered fresh insights into portfolio management. Discover how AI reshapes investing in our latest article.

AI-driven momentum trades and non-US value dominated markets in 2025. However, the sustainability of these trends remains uncertain, particularly given unproven ROI of AI investments. Amid this backdrop, quality stocks emerge as a prudent choice, offering both resilience and steady growth potential.

Backtests can mislead—or unlock real edge. In Part II of our mini-series, we show how to avoid common pitfalls, cut through bias, and turn backtests into a reliable tool for decision-making. Practical, actionable, and built for real-world investing.

Backtesting can reveal powerful insights—or create dangerous illusions. In Part I of our mini-series, we show how biases and shortcuts can inflate results, using a simple momentum strategy as an example. Learn why careful design matters before moving from simulation to real-world investing.

With rising temperatures, many investors are drawn to companies that offer adaptation solutions. While adaptation is essential, mitigating climate change and decarbonizing the economy also remain vital. Discover where adaptation and mitigation intersect – particularly in the realm of cooling – and how they can interact to create a more sustainable world.

As investors face tariffs, muted growth, and geopolitical risk, the Fixed Income team explains how emerging-market investment-grade bonds can provide yield and global diversification.

International equities offer long-term structural growth opportunities. Europe is undergoing an economic transformation through defense, technology, and infrastructure investments. In our view, rising US risks, like fiscal deficits, underscore the need for diversification.

How can machine learning ensembles be built in practice? From Bagging and Boosting to Stacking, this article explores different ensemble strategies and the role of model diversity. We also examine how ensembles are being applied in financial forecasting, drawing on both academic research and industry experience. Discover how combining models tends to deliver stronger, more resilient predictions in finance.

Why rely on one model when many do better? By combining multiple forecasts, ensembles tend to deliver more accurate and resilient results. This first article in our two-part series explores the theory behind model ensembles, linking classic forecasting research with today’s financial machine learning. Discover why combining models consistently outperforms relying on a single predictor.

Has the energy transition stalled due to weakening US policy support? We don’t believe so. In our view, this negative narrative is overly exaggerated and fails to recognize the increasing use of certain mature renewable technologies due to their strategic importance, economic competitiveness, faster implementation and limited technology risks.

FX is fragmented by nature — and that’s exactly what makes it valuable. Our latest Quanta Byte explores how FX trends offer independent return streams that passive hedging misses. Discover what happens when FX diversification starts doing more than just reducing volatility.

Markets inevitably shift, but global diversification endures. A thoughtfully constructed portfolio that combines leading US and non-US companies can offer meaningful advantages to long-term investors: enhanced performance potential, compelling valuations and access to growth industries where the US lags.

Our research shows sectors deliver both top and bottom returns, while factors—especially Quality, Dividend Strength and Minimum Volatility—offer more predictable, diversified, and stable performance. We use sectors tactically based on business cycle signals, but our strategic focus remains firmly on factors for consistent, risk-adjusted returns. Discover the Hybrid Investment team’s view on Minimum Volatility equity strategies over the business cycle at the Quantitative Investment Boutique.