Fixed income

As we head into the summer, credit markets are navigating an increasingly complex landscape. Inflation pressures are building up - particularly in Europe - while central banks are diverging in their policy responses, with most preparing for tighter monetary policy. Meanwhile, recent market volatility has created dispersion across sectors and rating categories, opening doors for active managers.

With the Middle East conflict clouding the outlook for inflation and interest rates, TwentyFour Asset Management’s Doug Charleston explains why asset-backed securities (ABS) could be a valuable diversifier for fixed income investors looking to deal with further volatility.

Since their introduction in 2013, AT1 bonds have acted as a valuable kicker for many fixed income funds, having consistently delivered excess return over more mainstream credit markets such as high yield bonds over the medium term.

With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increasing over the weekend and markets getting used to oil prices well in excess of $100 per barrel, this seems an opportune moment to zoom out and look at the state of play in fixed income markets, considering the unsettling reality of a longer-than-expected conflict in the Middle East.

Emerging markets have just weathered two major global shocks — and have come out on top. We believe this is no accident. Many investors missed the post-Liberation Day rebound by staying anchored in a framework that may no longer describe the emerging-market universe. The same misreading risks compounding potential portfolio under-exposure today.

Sharp swings in government and corporate bond markets since the onset of the Middle East conflict pose interesting questions for fixed income investors.