Fixed income

The question for investors now is how much of the macro risk remains, and how well that risk is being reflected in asset valuations.

April was one of the most volatile months across financial markets in recent memory, triggered by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2. While much has been written about the geopolitical and economic implications, here we will focus on how equity, credit and rates markets have adjusted following what was a sharp sell-off and subsequent recovery.

After a chaotic week in global markets following the tariffs announced by President Trump on April 2, at time of writing (April 10) investors are left to contemplate 125% tariffs on China, a baseline 10% on the rest of the world, 25% on auto imports and a 90-day pause on more punitive rates.

While much of the focus in private credit has been on direct lending, Significant Risk Transfer (SRT) is emerging as a compelling alternative. What began as a regulatory tool is now gaining traction with a growing investor base, as banks look to optimise capital and issuance reaches record highs.

“Liberation Day” has landed, and not with a whimper. In extraordinary scenes in the Rose Garden of the White House, President Trump held up a board outlining the level of tariffs the US will impose on countries around the world, and in most cases they were worse than worst-case expectations.

TwentyFour Asset Management’s Eoin Walsh breaks down a turbulent first quarter for investors, driven by newly imposed Trump tariffs and shifting economic forecasts.

TwentyFour Asset Management’s Chris Bowie reflects on a politically eventful first quarter, its impact on European and US markets and what it could mean for investors going forward.

As the first quarter of 2025 concludes, TwentyFour Asset Management’s Pauline Quirin shares her take on the strong performance of the securitisation market and insights for European ABS and Collateralised Loan Obligations (CLOs).

You can now watch the replay of our webinar: A new world order? Where next for markets and Fixed Income?

We remain cautiously optimistic about Fixed Income returns. Tail risks are elevated, which dampens our confidence in “risk on” markets. But alpha opportunities still await risk-aware, active investors. Those who try to predict the next major macro shift may find themselves echoing Luke Skywalker’s words, “your overconfidence is your weakness.”

The incoming German government’s removal of the country’s infamous “debt brake” is a serious pivot for the typically fiscally conservative country, and one that we think highlights the value on offer in European assets.

New world order with Trump 2.0 at the helm. New day, new risks. What’s keeping investors awake at the moment and how does this impact EM Fixed Income?

Since the Federal Reserve first cut interest rates in September, we have seen the most aggressive rise in US Treasury yields of any cutting cycle over the past 40 years.

As the fourth quarter of 2024 comes to a close, TwentyFour Asset Management’s Douglas Charleston reflects on the past year’s events and explains why, in his view, the record supply of European ABS and CLOs in 2024 is likely to be matched in 2025.

In what has been a busy start to 2025, TwentyFour Asset Management’s Gordon Shannon looks back on the final quarter of 2024.

It has been a busy year in fixed income markets, with Q4 2024 proving to be a pivotal period marked by significant global events, including the US election. TwentyFour Asset Management’s Eoin Walsh looks at the path for interest rate cuts in 2025.

Will volatility in government bonds continue? Has fixed income seen “peak ESG”? And what will be the biggest driver of returns?

Given modest interest rate cut projections, a stable if not stellar macro backdrop and better relative value than corporate credit, we think European ABS investors can expect another strong year of supply and returns in 2025.

The Net Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) has been the flagship climate initiative for banks to advertise their commitment to aligning their investment and lending portfolios with net-zero targets by 2050 or sooner. However, in recent weeks the NZBA has been hit with the withdrawal of all its major Wall Street banks.

It has been a busy start to 2025 in fixed income markets. After the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish December dot plot, which added fuel to a sell-off in rates last month, you might have thought primary market activity would be more cautious than both issuers and investors would have anticipated a month ago.

Spread tightening has left some market participants nervous about fixed income valuations going into 2025, but we think the drivers of recent credit performance are unlikely to weaken materially in the coming months.

Conditions are currently favorable across fixed income markets. But pockets of volatility and risk aversion will challenge even the most skilled investors. The silver lining? We expect risk-conscious, active investors can generate alpha opportunities in 2025 similar to those achieved this year.

With a macro backdrop of falling rates and solid global growth, TwentyFour Asset Management's Eoin Walsh says fixed income investors can expect healthy total returns in 2025.

It is important to understand the historical context behind “global” capital rules, and why they differ for EU and US banks.