Equities

Energy sovereignty efforts and competitiveness are fostering the transition from a system based on finite, extracted resources with volatile prices to one centered on generated technologies with decreasing costs as production scales. Investing in the full spectrum with an active approach offers the opportunity to accelerate the transition and share in its rewards.

Artificial intelligence (AI) may be one of the greatest technological breakthroughs, but it’s too early to tell. History shows that investment returns don’t always match innovation hype. However, we do know that economic fundamentals have not changed, which means that investments must become self-financing and deliver adequate returns to be sustainable.

Vontobel’s Ed Walczak is among a small number of portfolio managers active today who were also managing money during the dot-com bubble. Ed compares the two time periods and explains how having zero exposure in tech and telecom in the dot-com era, while unpopular, rewarded his investors.

Emerging market equities enjoyed an impressive year but have investors missed the boat? We don’t think so. In fact, we believe 2025 marked the first year of positive change for at least two key structural factors, which could spark the beginning of a new positive cycle for EM equities.

The 2026 Large Language Models Outlook examines the current state of artificial intelligence as it relates to LLMs, highlighting diversity, specialization, and global competition. Learn how open- and closed-weight models, regulatory approaches, and strategic deployment are shaping industries today, from finance to mathematics, and explore the trends likely to define AI’s trajectory in the year ahead.

AI is expanding what systematic investing can achieve — from unlocking deeper insights in complex data to building more adaptive, responsive portfolios. This piece explores the shift from classical quant to Quant 2.0 and what a more adaptive, data-driven future could look like.

While the promise of AI remains compelling, its market dominance and reliance on external financing create vulnerabilities. By seeking opportunities in areas of predictable growth and resilience – both within and outside the AI ecosystem – we believe investors can better navigate the uncertainties ahead.

AI models don’t have to be black boxes. In the final article of our Expl(AI)ning series, discover how SHAP values reveal the contributions behind model predictions, enhancing transparency and trust in AI-powered investing. See how we use these insights within our AI Powered process.

Leaders in the video game industry, such as Tencent Holdings, NetEase, and Capcom, offer a distinct blend of predictability and growth through a combination of "Evergreen" titles and new game pipelines. These firms have generated recurring revenues and compounded earnings at approximately 20% annually over the past decade.

Can the top 2% make all the difference? The quantitative team tested an AI-powered stock picker across 20 years of data. By analysing hit rates alongside market concentration and dispersion, they uncovered fresh insights into portfolio management. Discover how AI reshapes investing in our latest article.

AI-driven momentum trades and non-US value dominated markets in 2025. However, the sustainability of these trends remains uncertain, particularly given unproven ROI of AI investments. Amid this backdrop, quality stocks emerge as a prudent choice, offering both resilience and steady growth potential.

Backtests can mislead—or unlock real edge. In Part II of our mini-series, we show how to avoid common pitfalls, cut through bias, and turn backtests into a reliable tool for decision-making. Practical, actionable, and built for real-world investing.

Backtesting can reveal powerful insights—or create dangerous illusions. In Part I of our mini-series, we show how biases and shortcuts can inflate results, using a simple momentum strategy as an example. Learn why careful design matters before moving from simulation to real-world investing.

ESG frameworks have faced rising political pushback and growing skepticism, with some investors questioning the feasibility of climate goals under current political and economic conditions. We believe, even during turbulent times, the transition to a low-carbon economy is here to stay. Read the latest Impact Report for more insights.

With rising temperatures, many investors are drawn to companies that offer adaptation solutions. While adaptation is essential, mitigating climate change and decarbonizing the economy also remain vital. Discover where adaptation and mitigation intersect – particularly in the realm of cooling – and how they can interact to create a more sustainable world.

Following years of underperformance, emerging market equities are leading global markets in 2025 to date, driven by a softer US dollar, policy reforms, and renewed investor confidence. With valuations still discounted and structural tailwinds in place, this rally signals a potential long-term shift in global equity dynamics.

International equities offer long-term structural growth opportunities. Europe is undergoing an economic transformation through defense, technology, and infrastructure investments. In our view, rising US risks, like fiscal deficits, underscore the need for diversification.

Why rely on one model when many do better? By combining multiple forecasts, ensembles tend to deliver more accurate and resilient results. This first article in our two-part series explores the theory behind model ensembles, linking classic forecasting research with today’s financial machine learning. Discover why combining models consistently outperforms relying on a single predictor.

Has the energy transition stalled due to weakening US policy support? We don’t believe so. In our view, this negative narrative is overly exaggerated and fails to recognize the increasing use of certain mature renewable technologies due to their strategic importance, economic competitiveness, faster implementation and limited technology risks.

Markets inevitably shift, but global diversification endures. A thoughtfully constructed portfolio that combines leading US and non-US companies can offer meaningful advantages to long-term investors: enhanced performance potential, compelling valuations and access to growth industries where the US lags.

Quitting is often misunderstood as weakness. But in investing, selling is the overlooked half of decision-making, hindered by biases like sunk cost fallacy or FOMO. In our view, knowing when to walk away is essential for preserving capital and seizing better opportunities.

The pace of progress in AI is extraordinary. But will it displace popular music or broader media in the near term? We continue to monitor developments closely, particularly in hybrid human-AI creative workflows, evolving rights frameworks, and new monetization models that could shift competitive dynamics over time.

Are there lessons we can already learn from April’s blackout in Spain and Portugal? We believe so. Electrification lies at the heart of the energy transition. With increased investment, resilience can improve and alongside increased storage capacity, we can unlock the potential of the grid.

In our latest Quality Conversations videos, discover how quality companies—those with strong franchises, pricing power, and unlevered balance sheets—can thrive in uncertain markets. By navigating inflation, shifting economic cycles, and interest rate volatility, these "masters of their own destiny" appear to offer resilience and long-term growth potential.