Sharing our convictions

Brian Bandsma maintains that e-commerce and IT infrastructure will be long-term beneficiaries of the shift to online activity. He discusses Chinese stimulus measures and how India and Indonesia can withstand the crisis.

In response to the exceptional circumstances brought about by Covid-19, the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) at the Bank of England has written to UK banks asking them to ‘consider’ appropriate action regarding the payment, accrual and vesting of variable remuneration (i.e. bonuses) for senior staff, together with any dividend payments or share buyback plans.

Ed Walczak maintains that demand for consumer staples is intact over the long term, finds opportunity in companies that can benefit from lower oil prices, and believes that investors should assess whether portfolio holdings can withstand a protracted downturn.

David Souccar discusses a focus on quality in times of turmoil, the importance of a strong balance sheet and opportunities to upgrade portfolios.

Ramiz Chelat finds bright spots in areas such as med tech and software. For sectors that will have a longer recovery, like consumer discretionary and staples, differentiation is key. Companies with strong balance sheets will be poised to take market share from weaker rivals once the crisis is quelled.

Donny Kranson talks about opportunities arising from indiscriminate sell-offs, how a company can survive the downturn, resilience in essential services, and acceleration of the shift to online retailing.

Jin Zhang portends that now is a good time to allocate to emerging markets. Major EM countries can survive the short-term effects of a stronger dollar and have adhered to fiscal discipline. Jin anticipates resilience in e-commerce, online entertainment, IT services and memory chips.

In the last two weeks we’ve looked at how CLOs behaved during the global financial crisis, and we’ve stress tested a current CLO with GFC-like defaults to see where individual tranches would start to take a loss in that scenario. Keeping in mind the rule that the third in any trilogy is usually either the best or the worst, let’s hope this third instalment is more Toy Story 3 than Tokyo Drift.

With central banks and governments pumping huge amounts of funding into their domestic economies, they are obviously very keen that companies act with prudence and look after their surplus cash sparingly, by cutting back on distributions such as dividend payments and any share buyback plans.

At any other time, record issuance and record outflows in US investment grade would each be worthy of attention. Given the havoc COVID-19 has wreaked in recent weeks, it would be tempting to write off these milestones occurring in parallel last week as merely the latest quirk of an unprecedented period for bond markets, but the reasons behind this apparent sentiment split are worth keeping an eye on.

A different kind of playbook is required in this unique environment. It is near impossible to accurately predict 2020 earnings growth. But companies with strong balance sheets, namely those with superior liquidity, should possess the survivability required to prosper and bridge the gap during the next 6- to 9 months.

3 steps to help navigate the storm: recognize change, keep an eye on your horizon, and get ahead of structural shifts that will follow the shock of death and economic damage. How we frame the crisis in terms of capital preservation and recovery will affect investment decisions.