Sharing our convictions

Negative headlines around private credit have intensified this year, driven by the AI-related software sell-off and the news that most players have restricted withdrawals from retail private credit funds.

After years of climate taking center stage in impact investing, the social side of the coin is starting to receive more investor attention. Find out what’s been driving the increased interest, and why the timing matters.

Markets have bounced back to pre-conflict highs. The Conviction Equities and Multi Asset boutiques share their views on why this signal may be worth paying attention to.

A first-year review of European Equity Income Plus: performance, income distribution and resilience across turbulent markets. We examine how the strategy’s three building blocks responded to sharp drawdowns, a V-shaped recovery and geopolitical shock as the fund enters its second year.

Energy sovereignty efforts and competitiveness are fostering the transition from a system based on finite, extracted resources with volatile prices to one centered on generated technologies with decreasing costs as production scales. Investing in the full spectrum with an active approach offers the opportunity to accelerate the transition and share in its rewards.

The dispersion across commodity sectors persists into Q1 2026, with petroleum now the dominant driver of BCOM performance. In our latest quarterly outlook, we examine the supply dynamics behind elevated oil prices, the sharp precious metals selloff, and our views across energy, metals, and agriculture amid acute geopolitical uncertainty.

Investors are in wait-and-see mode as they face many moving pieces in the Middle East war. The Multi Asset Boutique shares its views in the latest Investors’ Outlook.

We believe EM fixed income is better positioned today than four years ago, despite uncertainty around the duration of the war and the disruption of oil supply. If de-escalation materializes in the short term, EM bonds may rebound amid a resumption of pre-war trends, including diversification away from US-centric portfolios.

In investment grade, several hyperscalers raised capex projections, driving record-breaking bond issuance. AI-related investments are heightening correlation risks and reshaping index compositions. In high yield, AI disruption creates risks and opportunities, particularly in software. The AI-capex trend has impacted the Swiss bond market, where new issuance remained elevated.

In the US and Japan, monetary policy is expected to support fiscal policy, even when central banks have other plans. Federal Reserve “Fed” Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's reform plans conflict with US President Donald Trump's preference for low rates, and the Bank of Japan's efforts to normalize policy clash with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's economic agenda.

Korea’s governance reforms tackle the 'Korea discount' by enhancing transparency and minority shareholder rights. Measures like mandatory treasury share cancellations and stronger board independence aim to unlock corporate value and drive fairer valuations. A pivotal step toward more equitable markets.

Vontobel’s experts discuss how geopolitics, inflation and credit are shaping the outlook for fixed income, exploring the impact of the Middle East crisis, diverging paths between the U.S. and Europe, and where value opportunities may emerge across credit markets.

Markets today resemble Aesop’s fable The Boy Who Cried Wolf, with many investors conditioned to dismiss risks after years of shallow, short-lived downturns and swift recoveries fueled by central bank interventions. We believe this complacency has led to higher valuations and reduced defensiveness, creating structural fragility.

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

As fixed income investors, our focus is on how the shock ripples through the variables that matter most for bonds: inflation, growth, and how central banks respond.

Despite the global ESG backlash, companies are continuing to work toward sustainability goals. The Conviction Equities Boutique’s Engagement Report captures the trends emerging for their dialogues and explains the team’s approach.

Our Vontobel experts, Dan Scott, Head of Multi-Asset & CIO; Christoph Boner, Chief Investment Allocation Officer; and Georg Häsler, security and military expert at NZZ, analyzed the latest developments in the Iran conflict. The discussion covered the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the scope for action of the US, China’s role, and the implications for global energy supplies.

Equity markets have become concentrated in a handful of mega-cap stocks, leaving many high-quality small- and mid-cap (SMID) companies overlooked. But what does the combination of concentration, valuation, and structural megatrends mean for investors?

Railroads play a critical role in facilitating the efficient movement of goods and essential commodities in North America. Over the last thirty years, railroads have evolved from heavily regulated businesses with returns at or below their cost of capital into lightly regulated and capital-efficient networks distinguished by infrastructure that is difficult to replicate. This article discusses the investment merits of listed railroads and examines how the recent industry dynamics will impact future growth.

Vontobel’s experts provide their perspective on developments in the Middle East and Iran and discuss the potential impact on emerging market equities and fixed income.

There has been no shortage of volatility amid escalating geopolitical tensions and growing AI disruption fears, but a little market pruning can be healthy. The latest Investors’ Outlook sifts through the recent developments and puts them into perspective.

As the US-Israeli military operation in Iran enters its fourth day, markets are continuing to react to rhetoric from both sides and attempting to gauge how long the conflict may last and what the impact will be on the local and global economies.

The geopolitical risk premium has transitioned from being a mere possibility to a present reality. Here is our perspective on the evolving situation in the Middle East.

We have had an eventful few weeks of AI-driven volatility in markets, with markets seemingly swinging from “everyone’s a winner” to “everyone’s a loser” faster than technological progress itself.