Sharing our convictions

One topic that is beginning to gather headlines again is the terms of any bilateral agreement between the UK and European Union once Brexit is finally completed at the end of this year, with the latest round of negotiations breaking up a day early this week as both sides said they were still far apart on a number of issues.

COVID-19 has just rung in the next round of low yields prolonging the balancing act between risk and return for multi-asset investors. While traditional multi-asset strategies might struggle, their modern counterparts are highly adept at delivering on their promises of return generation and capital protection thanks to firm risk control, volatility targeting and unbiased decision-making.

After the most incredible first quarter of 2020, we have seen an almost equally incredible second quarter. It is clear to us that the market overreacted in March, but it has also overreacted in its interpretation of the recovery.

Ethnic minorities account for 40% of the US population, 29% of bachelor degrees, but just 16% of Fortune 500 board seats. Sub-conscious bias plays a big role. A structured approach to hiring and mentoring are required for change. Diversity can drive innovation and shareholder returns.

The dust is beginning to settle in the UK economy, and we have been busy using granular RMBS data to assess the impact of mortgage payment relief (payment “holidays”), which the Financial Conduct Authority guided lenders to offer borrowers affected by COVID-19.

The European high yield market has shown remarkable resilience in the face of what will likely go down as one of the sharpest and most severe recessions in history. The benchmark iTraxx Xover index (a widely used proxy for Euro HY credit risk) has tightened from an intraday high of 730bp in March to 342bp earlier this week, a retracement of almost 75% from the January lows of approximately 200bp.

On what was a very busy morning for new issues, AIB probably came with one of the most interesting, announcing a €500m Additional Tier 1 (AT1) deal with a 5.5-year maturity with initial price thoughts of 7%, though we expect this will be tightened as the order book builds.

Our lives have been turned upside down by the pandemic. While much has been written about the shift to digital and its impact, relatively little has been said about the wider long-term changes for investors post coronavirus. We see six challenges facing investors – and the inherent potential.

Today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in some way represents a big step towards normality for investors, as they await what the Fed will do next having returned to its scheduled programme of meetings. So what can we expect from the Fed today?

Today’s World Oceans Day serves as a reminder that despite all efforts, population growth and increasing standards of living prevent us from curbing our high water consumption. By 2030, water demand is expected to increase by 40 percent. Over 2 billion people are already living in water-stressed countries.

Given the steep, uninterrupted rally we have witnessed since the end of March, we think it is a good time to reassess how much value is left in fixed income markets, if any.

As regular readers of this blog will know, TwentyFour has adopted ESG integration throughout its investment process for all strategies, and launched its first sustainable fund offering in January 2020. In doing so, we have engaged in some fascinating debates with clients and peers about the growing impact of ESG objectives on the fund management industry, and on fixed income markets in particular. Here are a few of our predictions for the years ahead.