Sharing our convictions

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its first estimate for Q1 US GDP growth, which at -0.3% was slightly worse than the Bloomberg consensus of -0.2% on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), seasonally adjusted, annualised basis. While the headline of the US experiencing negative growth looks quite bad, the detail of the report looks much better.

The AI boom has increased demand for data centers, but US electric utilities lack the capacity to power them. This has led to a rise in self-generation solutions, benefiting companies like Schneider Electric and National Grid. The issue was a key theme at the recent Data Center Dynamics trade show.

From deep dives into state and federal probes, to conversations with corporate clients and health plan auditors, our investigative analyst helped identify early warning signs of UnitedHealth Group’ s shift from market leader to a company facing regulatory liability. This case study highlights the benefits that former investigative journalists bring to the Quality Growth research process.

The high yield bond market reopened in Europe last week after a three-week hiatus triggered by the US tariffs fallout. Aside from a private placement by Very Group on April 10, the last public European high yield deal was from UK homebuilder Miller Homes on March 31, so we were interested to see how the first post-tariffs deal would be received.

Adaptation solutions are becoming more popular given the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events. While we see the benefits, we urge investors to remember that prevention is better than cure, and mitigation remains vital if we are to ensure a better future for all.

With a week currently feeling like a long time in geopolitics, the European sovereign crisis at the beginning of the last decade feels even more like a distant memory. The road to recovery for Europe’s periphery economies has been long and windy, but post-Covid it has been surprisingly smooth.

Markets settled down last week thanks to the absence of headlines around tariffs. There is a universal acceptance that uncertainty and volatility will remain, though a series of constructive data prints relating to inflation and labour markets have now been navigated, and investors are shifting their focus to how central banks will weigh up the growth and inflationary impact of tariffs at the next round of meetings.

Last week was one of the most volatile on record. President Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs for every country bar China sparked one of the largest rallies in equity indices in recent history.

After a chaotic week in global markets following the tariffs announced by President Trump on April 2, at time of writing (April 10) investors are left to contemplate 125% tariffs on China, a baseline 10% on the rest of the world, 25% on auto imports and a 90-day pause on more punitive rates.

Are traditional factors falling behind? In this Expl(AI)ning Quanta Byte, we explore how AI can breathe new life into factor investing. Discover the concept of AI-powered factors—a smarter, more adaptive approach that turns static models into predictive engines.

Uncertainty and volatility in today’s environment have highlighted the benefits of our disciplined Quality Growth philosophy, focused on proven businesses with inherent resilience and durability. Given the narrow tailwinds from the prior two years, select quality companies are attractively valued given their defensive growth characteristics.

With the market focus over the last week or so being firmly on equities and credit spreads, it is worth zooming in on developments in the European bank credit default swap (CDS) market.

While much of the focus in private credit has been on direct lending, Significant Risk Transfer (SRT) is emerging as a compelling alternative. What began as a regulatory tool is now gaining traction with a growing investor base, as banks look to optimise capital and issuance reaches record highs.

“Liberation Day” has landed, and not with a whimper. In extraordinary scenes in the Rose Garden of the White House, President Trump held up a board outlining the level of tariffs the US will impose on countries around the world, and in most cases they were worse than worst-case expectations.

If we look at the main drivers of returns in Q1 2025, the first one that comes to mind is tariffs. But while this is true for equities and credit spreads, in the context of global fixed income the main driver of total returns in Q1 was the Bund sell-off triggered by a momentous shift in German fiscal policy.

As the exuberance we’ve seen over the past few years fades, our Quality Growth team looks to find resilience in industries that are shielded from the effects of tariffs and the volatility around AI.

With the recent economic spotlight dominated by President Trump’s rhetoric and Germany’s blockbuster fiscal expansion plans, Wednesday brought the UK back into focus with the latest round of inflation data and the Spring Statement from the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

Emerging market (EM) equities are more domestically driven than commonly assumed. Companies in the MSCI EM Index derive over 60% of revenues in their home markets. And they could further reduce their dependence on exports in the future. We illustrate the reasons.

How do you build the perfect portfolio? Portfolio construction is a little like gourmet cooking, where quality ingredients are combined to create a balanced meal. Portfolio Manager David Souccar reveals our view on what’s at the heart of that delicate balance between risk and return.

Contentious call decisions from high profile issuers can provoke a fair bit of debate and emotion among participants in the Additional Tier 1 (AT1) market, and Deutsche Bank has put itself in the spotlight by announcing it will be calling only one of two AT1 bonds approaching their call dates.

Last week we wrote about a notable shift in market sentiment and how this had impacted our view of relative value within fixed income. So, where has the impact been felt, and has it changed our view on relative value?

You can now watch the replay of our webinar: A new world order? Where next for markets and Fixed Income?

Following the introduction of the European Union’s securitisation regulations in 2013, the Australian securitisation market initially lagged behind in aligning with European investors’ standards. Over the past decade, however, the market has undergone significant changes and recent record issuance shows investors are increasingly seeing the opportunity in Australian ABS.

Volatility in Bunds seems to have calmed down slightly in the last few days as markets continue to digest huge fiscal expansion plans from Germany and the European Union. At the same time, many forecasters have been downgrading their US growth projections after reassessing the level of pain President Trump seems willing to inflict on the US economy in order to implement his policy agenda.