Sharing our convictions

The pandemic has dramatically widened the gap between emerging-market winners and losers, and we do not expect the chasm to close. Rather, the “winner takes all” theme will intensify. Here’s how we separate the wheat from the chaff.

Unlike the past six months, where nearly all new deals performed well in the secondary market, from here on in that is far from guaranteed. Expect winners and losers.

Autumn is the season of crisp breezes and spectacular views – but hardly for investors, whose vision is impaired by US elections and Covid-19. While the fog engulfing the US presidential race may lift soon, continued uncertainty calls for a higher position in US Treasuries. However, equities still shine, in our opinion.

Corporate hybrids have evolved in recent years into a large and well-established asset class within the European fixed income market, with €185bn of bonds outstanding.

Investors return expectations with multi-asset portfolios are high. Achieving them going forward calls for rethinking the investment approach, especially in terms of diversification, asset allocation, and a system to get rid of emotional biases.

With developed-market yields remaining low, investors are finding income hard to come by. In this white paper, the Emerging Market Bonds team explains why emerging-market bonds offer opportunities for both income and performance, and where to find it.

In this short video, TwentyFour CEO Mark Holman outlines what he expects to see from bond markets in the next few weeks, and explains why he thinks fiscal stimulus in the US can be the catalyst for the rally to resume in the medium term.

The press can have their sensational headlines, but these stories have little substance when it comes to the impact on the reputation risk of banks or indeed any significant impact on their balance sheets come May 2021.

The weeks leading up to the US elections are likely to be volatile. A “Democratic sweep” would have the most negative impact on risky assets but benefit utilities and renewable energy companies, whereas a Trump win would trigger an equity relief rally and further benefit Big Tech, healthcare and communication services firms.

It takes two to tango on the dance floor as well as the world stage. While Donald Trump and Xi Jinping seem ready to jump at each other’s throats, a constructive geopolitical dialogue, perhaps after a Joe Biden win, could free us from trade war fears.

Many investors remain caught between the COVID-19 pandemic and the monetary and fiscal policy stimulus packages. This is exacerbated by uncertainties such as the negotiations between the UK and the European Union and the upcoming presidential election in the US. Find out how our models are positioned in this environment.

One of the legacies of Europe’s post-crisis lending landscape was a huge retrenchment in risk appetite, amplified by a lack of bank capital and in some instances funding for an extended period of time.