Sharing our convictions

The September Fed meeting was a surprise with its hawkish tilt which went hand in hand with upward GDP forecast revisions and lower recession risks. The question now is whether the Fed's willingness to keep rates 'higher for longer' is a calculated risk in combating inflation or a policy misstep. Our models estimate that a recession may not be immediate but cannot be ruled out, especially for H1 2024. In response, they continue to reduce their equity overweight as well as their bond underweight.

Short-term government bonds have enjoyed heightened levels of attention this year, but what will give fixed income investors that extra performance boost as the finish line for 2023 draws closer? Our Fixed Income Boutique’s corporate bond team shares five reasons why switching to actively managed investment grade bond funds could deliver that extra edge.

Financial return and positive impact are equally important in impact investing – but so is measurement.

After a multi-decade era of significant economic growth, China is now the second largest global economy and dominant in the MSCI emerging market index. How should emerging market equities investors balance this with the potential implications of recent economic and political moves out of Beijing and shifting demographic patterns?

Eoin Walsh shares his thoughts following last night's statement from the Federal Reserve, concluding that for now while treasury yields aren’t helping, credit looks attractive based on the rosy economic forecasts.

We reap what we sow: the “double dividend” concept seeks to offer financial returns and a better tomorrow

Last week’s inflation data revealed the economy’s vulnerability towards the vagaries of inflation. Services CPI remained stubborn and oil price gains fired up headline numbers again. While a second wave remains a possibility, even more pressing is a required adjustment by investors to the reality of a non-linear inflation decline coupled with slower growth that could last until 2025.

In the continuing tale of recessions, the three scenarios of no landing, hard landing, and soft landing call for finding just the right temperature, much like Goldilocks finally discovering the third bowl of the three bears’ porridge, which was neither too hot nor too cold, but just right. Which one would be the best outcome for investors? Read more in the latest Investors’ Outlook.

The Fixed Income Boutique’s emerging market debt franchise turns 10 this year. To celebrate this impressive milestone, our team leaders – Simon Lue-Fong, Luc D’hooge and Wouter van Overfelt – reflect on the past decade in emerging market bonds, make the case for active investing and look ahead to the next ten years.

Felipe Villarroel takes a look at what progress, if any, has been made in the labour market and how this resonates with the Fed's projection of labour markets easing while not experiencing a major disruption.

Markets experienced a setback in August 2023 as rate expectations for 2024 and 2025 rose, driven by reduced recession risks and inflation worries from fiscal stimulus and debt. Concerns about contagion from Chinese real estate developers in the banking system seem exaggerated. Our models remain constructive on equities.

Clean and safe water is essential to human survival. A key building block of our world, it’s also at the center of many global challenges. World Water Week draws attention to the need for innovation at a time of unprecedented challenges.