Reviews & outlooks

In the latest Global Market Outlook, our specialist team for quantitative investing and active risk premium management explains what the models signal while central banks are weighing up economic risks.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) in the Swiss Alpine resort town of Davos has returned to the format of physical encounters of decision makers. Topics ranged from the war in Ukraine and a new world order to sustainability and worries about “deglobalization”. But who would want to throw away three decades of productivity gains that helped many nations?

In the latest Global Market Outlook, our specialist team for quantitative investing and active risk premium management explains what the models signal, while worries about the war and inflation are dampening the discount factor.

We were about to raise a bottle of Corona beer to bid Covid-19 farewell when China imposed the strictest lockdown ever seen. Moreover, hopes for a fast post-pandemic economic recovery are marred by the US Fed’s new resolve to fight inflation. But investors may yet clink glasses if they proceed carefully.

Portfolio Managers Ed Walczak and Chul Chang highlight the future of tech companies, corporate profit margins, and supply chain reorganization.

Portfolio Manager Jin Zhang discusses China’s real estate, consumer and industrials sectors, as well as supply chain disruptions in semiconductors.

Portfolio manager Ramiz Chelat discusses regulatory risk in China, the impact of rising interest rates, and how to manage inflation.

Portfolio Manager Donny Kranson explores the impact of war and the energy crisis on consumer confidence in Europe, managing inflation and companies that are adjusting quickly to change.

CIO Matthew Benkendorf discusses supply chains, industrial activity, and consumer behavior as important drivers of economic growth, the impact of the US tightening cycle on emerging markets, and the possibility of recession at year end 2022 and into 2023.