More perspectives can lead to better investment decisions

Let’s not forget that the BoE dropped rates from 0.75% right down to 0.1% at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic back in March 2020, having only managed to put through two hikes in 2017 and 2018. It has changed course sharply before.

Local know-how goes a long way in emerging markets (EM). Regional e-commerce and consumer companies are increasing market share by adapting to local preferences. Some quality companies are benefiting from this and other EM trends, such as expanding demographics in the online gaming market and rising barriers to entry in semiconductors.

On your way down from “Peak Growth Mountain”, you need to rely on robust trekking poles, hiking boots – and securities, to make your journey more secure. Multi-asset strategist Sven Schubert has a few suggestions for a safe return to base camp, bringing to bear his experience in emerging markets.

Developed market equities shrugged off disruptions from Covid-19 and the threat of inflation, as stimulus continued to flow. By contrast, emerging markets are struggling as regulatory crackdowns shook confidence in China. The pendulum can swing quickly, however, and investors need to be prepared. Four Vontobel investment experts across equities and fixed income discuss where opportunities can be found as prospects shift from developed to emerging markets.

Fixed income markets have experienced a reasonable correction over recent weeks and, for higher-yielding indices at least, their first negative period so far this year.

Given the prospect of central bank tapering and ultimately interest rate rises are looming ever larger, it is no surprise dealmakers are trying to take advantage of attractive financing terms while they still exist.

In a sub-zero world, the opportunities to generate income have dwindled. Just keeping yields above zero is proving a challenge to the most experienced of bond investors. However, the emerging market corporate bond world offers a two-trillion US dollar investment universe where yield is abundant.

While bank treasurers may have to work a bit harder this year-end to formulate wholesale funding plans, the ABS market that they may be more reliant on going forward is experiencing a strong resurgence, which should ease the process of weaning off central bank funding.

This looks to us like a buy-into-the-dip opportunity, but investors should be wary of taking on too much rate sensitivity as the move in risk-free curves is likely to persist until the rate hike cycle is actually on the way.