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The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, combined with financial results from the banks, is probably still the most useful tool we have for gauging the cycle’s life expectancy.

A number of threats to risk assets have dissipated and could become positive tail risks for markets moving into 2020.

"The European CLO market is much smaller, but given the US is further ahead in the economic cycle, the US market can provide a good indication of what might happen in Europe."

For us, it is the insight into the US economy and the strength or weakness of their customers, that we find most interesting in the banking results, and especially so when the US economic data is increasingly pointing to a slowdown.

The US-China interim agreement reduces recessionary risks in both countries. However, the trade war is far from over and risks of a re-escalation persist.

It is not clear to us just how much more monetary easing will placate equity investors, and we see a real risk that when we enter the third quarter earnings season next week, company specific data from the bottom up will be more of a shock than the macro picture has been.

European collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) have been a favoured asset class for certain TwentyFour Asset Management strategies over the last several years, and more recently clients have quite rightly been asking why we prefer them to US CLOs.

Employees are consumers that power the economy. They also represent a large part of valuations worldwide. So why are investors so bad at measuring people impact? Understanding how and why employees add value enables companies to get the most from their staff, delivering better results for savers and society.

In our new audio series, Vontobel Quality Growth Portfolio Managers offer insights on how to navigate volatility. You can listen to our experts’ views on the risks in equity markets today and how they identify companies that are on the right side of long-term structural trends.