Investment teams

We believe EM fixed income is better positioned today than four years ago, despite uncertainty around the duration of the war and the disruption of oil supply. If de-escalation materializes in the short term, EM bonds may rebound amid a resumption of pre-war trends, including diversification away from US-centric portfolios.

In investment grade, several hyperscalers raised capex projections, driving record-breaking bond issuance. AI-related investments are heightening correlation risks and reshaping index compositions. In high yield, AI disruption creates risks and opportunities, particularly in software. The AI-capex trend has impacted the Swiss bond market, where new issuance remained elevated.

In the US and Japan, monetary policy is expected to support fiscal policy, even when central banks have other plans. Federal Reserve “Fed” Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's reform plans conflict with US President Donald Trump's preference for low rates, and the Bank of Japan's efforts to normalize policy clash with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's economic agenda.

Korea’s governance reforms tackle the 'Korea discount' by enhancing transparency and minority shareholder rights. Measures like mandatory treasury share cancellations and stronger board independence aim to unlock corporate value and drive fairer valuations. A pivotal step toward more equitable markets.

Vontobel’s experts discuss how geopolitics, inflation and credit are shaping the outlook for fixed income, exploring the impact of the Middle East crisis, diverging paths between the U.S. and Europe, and where value opportunities may emerge across credit markets.

Markets today resemble Aesop’s fable The Boy Who Cried Wolf, with many investors conditioned to dismiss risks after years of shallow, short-lived downturns and swift recoveries fueled by central bank interventions. We believe this complacency has led to higher valuations and reduced defensiveness, creating structural fragility.

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

As fixed income investors, our focus is on how the shock ripples through the variables that matter most for bonds: inflation, growth, and how central banks respond.

Despite the global ESG backlash, companies are continuing to work toward sustainability goals. The Conviction Equities Boutique’s Engagement Report captures the trends emerging for their dialogues and explains the team’s approach.