Equities

As the cycle of market excesses comes to an end, how can investors prepare? Tilt towards a portfolio of less-cyclical companies with pricing power and don’t mistake quality companies for those with an exciting story. The good news is that human ingenuity is not limited by the macro environment.

With Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh being the venue of this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP), it’s worth remembering that developing economies bear most of the negative effects of emissions mainly produced in industrialized nations. Therefore, the onus is on western companies to go “net zero carbon”, but how to measure their progress? One common yardstick for investors is the carbon footprint method – or the more encompassing “potential avoided emissions” method propagated by Vontobel’s impact investing team.

The renewables industry looks set to benefit from tightening regulation in the European Union, or a recently signed US law aiming to decarbonize the US power sector. The nascent “clean energy” industry, which encompasses areas such as electric vehicles, batteries, or hydrogen produced in a sustainable manner, opens new opportunities for investors as well.

Feeding a starving person is important, we all agree on that. But from an investor’s point of view, allocating capital to companies working towards the same end is perhaps even more appropriate. But first, go find promising ones active in areas such as increasing land yields, reducing food waste, or preserving biodiversity, to name a few.

As the cycle of market excesses comes to an end, how can investors prepare? Tilt towards a portfolio of less-cyclical companies with pricing power; don’t mistake quality companies for those with an exciting story; and watch out for underestimated risks, such as carbon emission liabilities.

Price action on Monday has taken the implied equity risk premium to 10.7%, the highest since 2008. Foreign investors appear to have interpreted the composition of newly appointed Standing Committee in China as offering less likelihood of a change in policy direction on the government’s dynamic zero-Covid stance. However, the announced policies were in-line with expectations and there were no negative surprises.

As part of Vontobel’s FT Moral Money Forum partnership, Christel Rendu de Lint, our deputy head of investments, weighs in on the complexities that accompany ESG in emerging markets.

Asset owners are increasingly demanding net zero plans from their investment managers, who need to determine how to track and reduce portfolio emissions. Issues include: rebalancing vs rate of reduction, whether it’s too early for Scope 3, and ensuring engagements go beyond the more receptive European and US markets.

EM GDP growth remains higher than the rest of the world, EM central banks have been more proactive than developed markets in managing inflationary pressures, and the US dollar’s precipitous rise this year has had a greater impact on developed country currencies vs. emerging markets.

After a decade of underperformance, are emerging markets (EM) equities on the road to recovery? The potential for stronger earnings growth, particularly in Asia, along with a widening differential in emerging versus developed market real GDP growth could be a catalyst for the re-rating of global EM.

High inflation creates the illusion of falling carbon intensity, a common measure used to track greenhouse gas emissions from portfolios. It is critical for investors who are targeting Paris Aligned reductions to adjust for this issue. By using alternatives to revenue-backed carbon intensity tracking metrics, we can help maintain data integrity and save years of progress.

How much do listed companies contribute to emissions? We estimate they account for about 16.9 billion tons of greenhouse gases compared to a global total of 46.3 billion tons annually. These are needle-moving volumes. Investors can make a difference by working with management teams to encourage abatement plans.

The circular economy, popularized by expressions such as “zero waste”, “right to repair”, or “from farm to fork”, is rooted in the knowledge that resources are finite. Companies that manage to reduce their consumption of raw materials are likely to increase their profits and market share, which will ultimately benefit investors. Past examples of corporate successes based on the circular economy include the Italian Vespa scooter.

Discussing sustainability matters with Chinese companies is rewarding and challenging. Part of it is fact-finding, part of it is education. But investors need to tread with caution, and little extras such as talking Chinese help, says Hong Kong-based ESG analyst Gayle Chan. She also explains the approach of mtx Equities, citing a concrete example.

How can you find growth in times of panic? Difficult markets are not to be feared. Investors need an optimistic resolve and a clear roadmap: identify businesses with sustainable and predictable earnings streams, pricing power, and lower leverage, and avoid stocks trading at exorbitant multiples that are vulnerable to higher discount rates.

Like the end of a long evening of revelry, the decline in the fortunes of momentum growth and value companies leaves the Quality Growth investors, in our opinion – still standing. Companies with pricing power, low debt, and consistent earnings may be the slow but steady winners in the race to beat the market.

Bear markets do not send advance warnings. But investors can pay attention to red flags. Valuation multiples are well above the long-term average and consensus estimates are bullish on earnings growth. The good news is that investors can prepare for macro uncertainty and minimize capital loss.

As pressure has been building on Chinese technology stocks given growing regulatory threats, some of the key players in the Chinese internet sector are shifting to a more prudent strategy, pulling back to focus closer on the core business rather than investing in new growth areas.

Central banks must temper inflation at a time of geopolitical crisis, historically high valuations, slowing economic growth, declining equity markets, and a flattening yield curve – clearly not an environment for the faint of heart. Quality growth stocks, relative winners during times of persistent inflation, can be a portfolio stabilizer in challenging times.

What do Tiffany jewelry, Gerber baby food, and Milwaukee power tools have in common? They are all iconic American consumer brands owned by non-US based companies. In our view, US index funds and active managers that invest only in US-based companies are missing out on some American gems.

What does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine portend for China and Taiwan? How do you identify quality companies amid unpredictable regulatory and political environments? How should you consider absolute risks on a country level? Cheryl Gedvila, Client Portfolio Manager, addresses these difficult questions to help investors navigate markets today.

Unglamorous stock research, resisting the whims of the markets, and preparing for the worst can be downright boring. But it’s a great way to find quality international companies that can help reduce portfolio risk and improve downside protection – exciting results during these uncertain times.

Market sentiment reflects growth that will continue at past levels, yet economies and businesses globally are facing stiff headwinds – high government debt, rising inflation, and supply chain bottlenecks. As markets shrug off risks, expect volatility and a divergence in company performance in 2022.

The latest plot twist of the pandemic may have spooked markets in recent days, but the underlying sentiment is still one of worrying exuberance and investors are overlooking businesses in the consumer staples, health care and discretionary sectors that are still in the process of normalizing.