Devises

Plusieurs tendances observées sur le marché des obligations d’entreprises en francs suisses ont, selon nous, rendu cette classe d’actifs digne de l’attention des investisseurs en quête de revenus stables à un risque relativement faible. Nous examinons de plus près pourquoi nous jugeons cette classe d’actifs attrayante aujourd’hui et expliquons pourquoi nous pensons qu’il est crucial pour les investisseurs de gérer activement leurs portefeuilles.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced inflation concerns. While tight credit spreads limit upside, fundamentals and technicals remain supportive of fixed income markets. We are modestly constructive but cautious, particularly on private credit, where complacency around liquidity risks appears underappreciated.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz reignited inflation concerns and prompted major central banks into a more hawkish stance. While inflation has risen, we believe the shock is temporary, making further ECB and Fed tightening unlikely. An additional hike from the BoJ is likely, in our view, but it risks moving too slowly.

EM fixed income stayed resilient through the war-induced shock. As oil prices fell, inflation remained contained. Capital inflows resumed after a brief interruption and sovereign rating upgrades continued. We believe the asset class is supported by elevated global risk appetite, attractive local-currency yields, and diversification away from US assets.

The investment grade market faces an AI-driven supply surge as hyperscalers reshape credit dynamics. In high yield, surface stability masks elevated issuer dispersion and structural divergence, while CHF markets remain supported by benign inflation, strong demand, and favorable seasonal dynamics.

Vontobel’s experts assess the implications of the latest US-Iran deal for inflation and interest rates, exploring the policy outlook for the Fed, ECB and Bank of England, and discussing where opportunities and risks may emerge across fixed income markets.