Macroeconomics

Having initially expected central banks to cut interest rates in 2026, investors now face a hawkish pivot after the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked rates at its June meeting.

In an increasingly deglobalized world, governments are seeking energy and commodity autonomy in the form of domestic supply chains and strategic reserves. What does this mean for the energy transition?

As we enter the home stretch of the first half of the year, one of the main questions is what the war in the Middle East may mean for the economy’s trajectory this year. The Multi Asset Boutique shares its views in the latest Investors’ Outlook.

UK government bond yields have pushed higher this month as markets have digested a building political crisis, with the prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, now set to face a Labour Party leadership contest following dire local election results on May 7.

Vontobel’s experts highlight a widening set of opportunities in emerging market equities, spanning consumer-driven growth, industrial capital expenditure, energy investment, and markets undergoing structural reforms that emphasize shareholder value and capital discipline.

Risk sentiment has withstood seesawing geopolitical headlines. The latest Investors’ Outlook shares the Multi Asset Boutique's reasons why and outlines what may lie ahead as we move further into the second quarter.

With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increasing over the weekend and markets getting used to oil prices well in excess of $100 per barrel, this seems an opportune moment to zoom out and look at the state of play in fixed income markets, considering the unsettling reality of a longer-than-expected conflict in the Middle East.

Sharp swings in government and corporate bond markets since the onset of the Middle East conflict pose interesting questions for fixed income investors.

Investors are in wait-and-see mode as they face many moving pieces in the Middle East war. The Multi Asset Boutique shares its views in the latest Investors’ Outlook.

In the US and Japan, monetary policy is expected to support fiscal policy, even when central banks have other plans. Federal Reserve “Fed” Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's reform plans conflict with US President Donald Trump's preference for low rates, and the Bank of Japan's efforts to normalize policy clash with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's economic agenda.

Vontobel’s experts discuss how geopolitics, inflation and credit are shaping the outlook for fixed income, exploring the impact of the Middle East crisis, diverging paths between the U.S. and Europe, and where value opportunities may emerge across credit markets.

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.