Fixed Income

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced inflation concerns. While tight credit spreads limit upside, fundamentals and technicals remain supportive of fixed income markets. We are modestly constructive but cautious, particularly on private credit, where complacency around liquidity risks appears underappreciated.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz reignited inflation concerns and prompted major central banks into a more hawkish stance. While inflation has risen, we believe the shock is temporary, making further ECB and Fed tightening unlikely. An additional hike from the BoJ is likely, in our view, but it risks moving too slowly.

EM fixed income stayed resilient through the war-induced shock. As oil prices fell, inflation remained contained. Capital inflows resumed after a brief interruption and sovereign rating upgrades continued. We believe the asset class is supported by elevated global risk appetite, attractive local-currency yields, and diversification away from US assets.

The investment grade market faces an AI-driven supply surge as hyperscalers reshape credit dynamics. In high yield, surface stability masks elevated issuer dispersion and structural divergence, while CHF markets remain supported by benign inflation, strong demand, and favorable seasonal dynamics.

Collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) are securitisations backed by a large pool of senior secured corporate loans, which are financed partly via selling bonds to investors.

Multi-Asset Credit (MAC) is an active, unconstrained fixed income strategy that targets higher returns for investors who accept greater market and credit risk.

Vontobel’s experts assess the implications of the latest US-Iran deal for inflation and interest rates, exploring the policy outlook for the Fed, ECB and Bank of England, and discussing where opportunities and risks may emerge across fixed income markets.

Emerging markets have been taking up a bigger share of investors’ attention. But why? Watch these videos to take a look at the bigger picture.

Having initially expected central banks to cut interest rates in 2026, investors now face a hawkish pivot after the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked rates at its June meeting.

The conflict in Iran has driven a sharp repricing at the front-end of rates markets, pushing central bank expectations from cuts to hikes in a matter of weeks. While the reaction is understandable given the inflationary impact, the scale of the move has left front-end yields on a more attractive footing.

UK government bond yields have pushed higher this month as markets have digested a building political crisis, with the prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, now set to face a Labour Party leadership contest following dire local election results on May 7.

Markets have held up surprisingly well, even as pressures build beneath the surface. Since the war in the Middle East began in February, investors have had to contend with rising energy prices, renewed inflation concerns, and a quasi-U-turn in monetary policy expectations.