Sharing our convictions

Following a difficult and volatile 2022, there are sound reasons to believe that EM equities could deliver a strong rebound in 2023. Along with compelling relative valuations of EM equities, we identified three key cycles that have the potential to provide a positive boost to EM equities next year.

China’s authorities have recently revealed coordinated measures to alleviate the pressure on its property sector. The government tried to help the sector in the past year but failed; however, this time could be more determined and effective.

Will the US midterm results shape the country’s foreign policy? What to expect in terms of economic blocs? Where does the EU fit into it all? As investors juggle economic and geopolitical challenges, are there underlying trends? Lord Patten joined Dr. Reto Cueni, Vontobel Chief Economist, to share his insights.

Price action on Monday has taken the implied equity risk premium to 10.7%, the highest since 2008. Foreign investors appear to have interpreted the composition of newly appointed Standing Committee in China as offering less likelihood of a change in policy direction on the government’s dynamic zero-Covid stance. However, the announced policies were in-line with expectations and there were no negative surprises.

As part of Vontobel’s FT Moral Money Forum partnership, Christel Rendu de Lint, our deputy head of investments, weighs in on the complexities that accompany ESG in emerging markets.

EM GDP growth remains higher than the rest of the world, EM central banks have been more proactive than developed markets in managing inflationary pressures, and the US dollar’s precipitous rise this year has had a greater impact on developed country currencies vs. emerging markets.

Geopolitical tensions, an energy crisis and inflation have marked global activity in 2022. The ball is now in the court of central banks, which in the months ahead will have to quell runaway inflation without risking a global economic freeze.

The Corporate Credit team reveals how they plan to navigate the fourth quarter of 2022

The first round of Brazil’s general elections will take place on Sunday, October 2nd, with former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the current president Jair Bolsonaro facing each other. Thierry Larose, Portfolio Manager at Vontobel, discusses how markets are viewing the two candidates.

After a decade of underperformance, are emerging markets (EM) equities on the road to recovery? The potential for stronger earnings growth, particularly in Asia, along with a widening differential in emerging versus developed market real GDP growth could be a catalyst for the re-rating of global EM.

Discussing sustainability matters with Chinese companies is rewarding and challenging. Part of it is fact-finding, part of it is education. But investors need to tread with caution, and little extras such as talking Chinese help, says Hong Kong-based ESG analyst Gayle Chan. She also explains the approach of mtx Equities, citing a concrete example.

In this fixed income mid-year outlook, Portfolio Manager Carlos de Sousa, explains why the overlooked and much maligned emerging market local-currency asset class may be the phoenix of fixed income.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered fresh debate about ESG considerations in fixed income, particularly when it comes to emerging markets assets.

What do Tiffany jewelry, Gerber baby food, and Milwaukee power tools have in common? They are all iconic American consumer brands owned by non-US based companies. In our view, US index funds and active managers that invest only in US-based companies are missing out on some American gems.

What does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine portend for China and Taiwan? How do you identify quality companies amid unpredictable regulatory and political environments? How should you consider absolute risks on a country level? Cheryl Gedvila, Client Portfolio Manager, addresses these difficult questions to help investors navigate markets today.

Unglamorous stock research, resisting the whims of the markets, and preparing for the worst can be downright boring. But it’s a great way to find quality international companies that can help reduce portfolio risk and improve downside protection – exciting results during these uncertain times.

Local know-how goes a long way in emerging markets (EM). Regional e-commerce and consumer companies are increasing market share by adapting to local preferences. Some quality companies are benefiting from this and other EM trends, such as expanding demographics in the online gaming market and rising barriers to entry in semiconductors.

Unlike horses that need blinders to keep them narrowly focused on winning a race, investors should expand their field of vision to consider the risks around them. Matthew Benkendorf, CIO of the Quality Growth Boutique, shares 5 principles that are critical to help successfully navigate emerging markets.

Many emerging markets are more resilient to external shocks than in the past and can better withstand the pressures of a stronger US dollar. And so far, many EMs have been fairly conservative in their use of stimulus in response to Covid-19. This increases the potential for prosperous times ahead.

The ongoing trade war and eroding U.S.-China relationship have been a catalyst for making it less attractive for Chinese companies to seek a public listing in the United States. The Chinese government is finally making good on promises to open up domestic markets to foreign investors. Additionally, Hong Kong and China are taking steps to make local listings more attractive, especially to high-tech start-ups.

Get Social, ‘S’ from ESG, wrong and a company stands to lose customers and employee loyalty, and damage value of the business. The priority of owners in how socially responsible investments are made, and the expected returns, are key. Liquid markets can deliver rapid change in ownership. Can the two coexist? Owners are as much part of the solution as part of the problem.

China is relying on consumer spending for growth, with consumption driven by running property prices, rapidly rising incomes and debt. China’s property prices reached 84% of those in the U.S., yet disposable income is just one tenth. As the trade fallout with the U.S. saps demand for jobs – red flags are up.

China’s ambitions being challenged is creating significant uncertainty. Alongside this, MSCI and FTSE appear to be stumbling over each other to add China weight to their indices. The potential to reshape the benchmarks has significance – for both active and passive investors. Is the herd being led down a dark alley?

Emerging Market (EM) bonds have had a good year so far. While they are not at the very top of the performance table, the hard currency CEMBI (Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index) is up 5.69% in $ since the start of the year, and the EMBI (Sovereigns) is up 6.32%; not bad at all.