Waiting for the “fat pitch”: Lessons from the 2026 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting

In a market flooded with headlines about AI, innovation, and the next big thing, it’s easy to forget that some of the best investment lessons come from experience.

Ed Walczak, portfolio manager of Vontobel’s US Equity strategy, has more than three decades of investing under his belt, and he has attended Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting more than 30 times. This year marked a shift: for the first time, Warren Buffett wasn’t the primary host; new CEO Greg Abel took the stage.

Yet for Ed, the message out of Omaha felt both familiar and relevant in today’s momentum-driven, AI-obsessed market. We sat down with Ed to talk about where he’s finding quality today and why sticking to a discipline may be harder, but more important than ever.

Why do you believe Buffett’s quality philosophy has endured?

Because it has worked over time. Buffett’s record speaks for itself, of course, but it’s bigger than one person. The philosophy can be learned and applied. And it tends to attract a certain temperament: humble, intellectually open people. It’s not just an investment approach, it’s a culture.

Buffett has said the approach is simple, but not easy, and I completely agree. What drew me in was how sensible and risk-aware it is. Those early trips to Omaha helped me find my own “true north” as an investor.

At this year’s meeting, the tribe was still out in full force. Long-time attendees in their 70s, 80s, even 90s, showed up like clockwork. And the surrounding events were as lively as ever.

What kind of temperament do you believe a Buffett-style investor needs?

Patience is key. Buffett has said that over roughly 60 years of investing, only a handful of years offered true “fat pitch” opportunities – stocks with low risk and high return potential. That’s where baseball’s Ted William s analogy comes in. You can swing at plenty of pitches and do fine. But if you want great returns, you wait for your sweet spot or circle of competence. The problem is that markets don’t always cooperate. Especially if you have a short-term horizon. Buffett’s framework assumes a long-term mindset, and most people just aren’t wired that way.

How hard is it to stick to your discipline when markets are momentum-driven, like today?

The market has been driven by technological change and AI for several years now, and that has created a real challenge for fundamental investors. In many cases, you’re no longer investing; you’re speculating. We can all agree that AI is a powerful long-term trend. But the real questions are: who wins? And at what valuation? The old business-school formula still applies: the intrinsic value of an asset is the present value of its expected future cash flows. But how do you estimate that when you don’t know who the long-term winners will be?

So, where do you find quality outside of AI?

It often looks boring. Take an old-school company like Cintas. It is a predictable business that has been around for over 100 years, outfitting hospitals and restaurants with uniforms. Or the company Waste Management. More people living in a city means more trash, which means more efficient and profitable routes. Railroads are another example. There are only a few left, such as Union Pacific, and no one is building new ones. That’s an incredibly durable moat. But the reality is if you only owned a portfolio of those stocks over the last few years, you would have lagged the market. Quality still exists today, but it’s often not what’s driving headlines.

Where does human judgment fit in when AI tools are improving so fast?

Human behavior, those emotional highs and lows, are what create opportunity. The current AI hype may be amplifying that. If you have the data, therein lies where you can do deep research. But the areas that are hardest to analyze with real confidence continue to outperform. That’s intellectually uncomfortable if you’re a true investor and not just a trend follower.

Sometimes the hardest thing to do is wait for the fat pitch and have the discipline not to swing before it arrives.