Artificial Intelligence

Equity markets have become concentrated in a handful of mega-cap stocks, leaving many high-quality small- and mid-cap (SMID) companies overlooked. But what does the combination of concentration, valuation, and structural megatrends mean for investors?

We have had an eventful few weeks of AI-driven volatility in markets, with markets seemingly swinging from “everyone’s a winner” to “everyone’s a loser” faster than technological progress itself.

Market focus has shifted in recent weeks from hyperscaler spending to the threat AI could pose to numerous software-as-a-service (SaaS) businesses.

Artificial intelligence (AI) may be one of the greatest technological breakthroughs, but it’s too early to tell. History shows that investment returns don’t always match innovation hype. However, we do know that economic fundamentals have not changed, which means that investments must become self-financing and deliver adequate returns to be sustainable.

It has been a roaring start to the new year as geopolitical headlines turned the volume up, contributing to a weaker US dollar and a surge in gold. But what else may await investors as the year unfolds? Find out in the first Investors’ Outlook of 2026.

Vontobel’s Ed Walczak is among a small number of portfolio managers active today who were also managing money during the dot-com bubble. Ed compares the two time periods and explains how having zero exposure in tech and telecom in the dot-com era, while unpopular, rewarded his investors.

Explore the Global Credit Outlook 2026: A concise overview of key trends in global credit markets, from macroeconomic shifts and corporate fundamentals to AI-driven investments and market opportunities. Gain insights to navigate the year ahead effectively.

The 2026 Large Language Models Outlook examines the current state of artificial intelligence as it relates to LLMs, highlighting diversity, specialization, and global competition. Learn how open- and closed-weight models, regulatory approaches, and strategic deployment are shaping industries today, from finance to mathematics, and explore the trends likely to define AI’s trajectory in the year ahead.

The surge in AI capex is driving a rapid increase in bond issuance in the investment grade market. High yield bonds are on track to generate solid returns for 2025; we continue to favor telecoms and energy. The Swiss bond market has once again moved to its own rhythm.

AI is expanding what systematic investing can achieve — from unlocking deeper insights in complex data to building more adaptive, responsive portfolios. This piece explores the shift from classical quant to Quant 2.0 and what a more adaptive, data-driven future could look like.

While the promise of AI remains compelling, its market dominance and reliance on external financing create vulnerabilities. By seeking opportunities in areas of predictable growth and resilience – both within and outside the AI ecosystem – we believe investors can better navigate the uncertainties ahead.

For much of the past year, the AI story in markets has been one of unrestrained optimism. Firms have been racing to spend on chips, infrastructure, and data centres, and equity valuations have generally rewarded those with the boldest capital expenditure plans.