Viewpoints

2022 was the worst year for bonds in living memory. So, could 2023 be similarly bad for other asset classes? Chris Bowie looks at the case for short dated investment grade credit for 2023.

ESG research is an extension of our philosophy of long-term thinking and fits seamlessly into our existing research process. We focus on material issues rather than broad ESG scores, which enables us to understand and get ahead of risks that can jeopardize earnings predictability.

When comparing the earnings trajectory of emerging markets corporates with that of their developed-market counterparts, many investors consider this a lost decade. Are emerging market stocks now set to bounce back?

What’s behind the demands for unions globally? When are higher wages a threat to the bottom line? And which companies are best placed to manage the risk? In his back-to-basics blog on organized labor, Sudhir Roc-Sennett answers these critical questions for investors.

In our view, European credit now represents a strong medium term value opportunity that investors cannot afford to ignore.

As China readies for the Year of the Rabbit, there are several causes for celebration, says Fixed Income Boutique Credit Analyst Cosmo Zhang. Economic recovery could come earlier and stronger than expected in the first quarter of 2023, as mobility and supply chains return to normal despite a Covid surge.

While European ABS was not immune to negative returns amid the considerable fixed income headwinds of 2022, it gave investors largely what they look to this allocation for – lower volatility and better performance than mainstream bonds. In our view, the forward-looking opportunity looks equally compelling.

As new regimes emerge, so do new words to explain them. Understanding the world, one geopolitical term at a time.

Should we blindly follow a machine? Or is human judgment needed to make weighed decisions? We believe that man and machine must act as a team to achieve the best results. That's why we developed the Wave, which is based on a big data approach and serves as a compass in our investment process.

After a decade of underperformance, we believe emerging market equities are set for a brighter next chapter and any further short-term pain will be outweighed by the opportunity for longer-term gain. Here are three reasons why:

Biodiversity loss often takes a backseat to climate change in global headlines but ignoring the preservation of natural ecosystems poses a threat to water, land, marine life, health, and can increase poverty. There is an urgent need for change. The upcoming COP 15 will address biodiversity solutions that will benefit companies, investors, and society.

With investors caught between inflation and recession, TwentyFour Asset Management’s Chris Bowie argues current valuations in short term, investment grade bonds can offer portfolios both downside protection and attractive yields.

As the cycle of market excesses comes to an end, how can investors prepare? Tilt towards a portfolio of less-cyclical companies with pricing power and don’t mistake quality companies for those with an exciting story. The good news is that human ingenuity is not limited by the macro environment.

Will the US midterm results shape the country’s foreign policy? What to expect in terms of economic blocs? Where does the EU fit into it all? As investors juggle economic and geopolitical challenges, are there underlying trends? Lord Patten joined Dr. Reto Cueni, Vontobel Chief Economist, to share his insights.

US voters have hit the polls in a vote that determines the power dynamics in US Congress. While the Democrats have retained control of the Senate, Republicans have taken control of the House of Representatives. So, what does the outcome mean?

With Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh being the venue of this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP), it’s worth remembering that developing economies bear most of the negative effects of emissions mainly produced in industrialized nations. Therefore, the onus is on western companies to go “net zero carbon”, but how to measure their progress? One common yardstick for investors is the carbon footprint method – or the more encompassing “potential avoided emissions” method propagated by Vontobel’s impact investing team.

Feeding a starving person is important, we all agree on that. But from an investor’s point of view, allocating capital to companies working towards the same end is perhaps even more appropriate. But first, go find promising ones active in areas such as increasing land yields, reducing food waste, or preserving biodiversity, to name a few.

As the cycle of market excesses comes to an end, how can investors prepare? Tilt towards a portfolio of less-cyclical companies with pricing power; don’t mistake quality companies for those with an exciting story; and watch out for underestimated risks, such as carbon emission liabilities.

Price action on Monday has taken the implied equity risk premium to 10.7%, the highest since 2008. Foreign investors appear to have interpreted the composition of newly appointed Standing Committee in China as offering less likelihood of a change in policy direction on the government’s dynamic zero-Covid stance. However, the announced policies were in-line with expectations and there were no negative surprises.

Looking back to previous cycles in the high yield market, data have shown down periods have usually given way to strong returns years. While spreads are set to stay volatile until inflation starts to slow down, Portfolio Manager Stella Ma sees valuations becoming more attractive as we near the end of 2022.

Asset owners are increasingly demanding net zero plans from their investment managers, who need to determine how to track and reduce portfolio emissions. Issues include: rebalancing vs rate of reduction, whether it’s too early for Scope 3, and ensuring engagements go beyond the more receptive European and US markets.

EM GDP growth remains higher than the rest of the world, EM central banks have been more proactive than developed markets in managing inflationary pressures, and the US dollar’s precipitous rise this year has had a greater impact on developed country currencies vs. emerging markets.

Geopolitical tensions, an energy crisis and inflation have marked global activity in 2022. The ball is now in the court of central banks, which in the months ahead will have to quell runaway inflation without risking a global economic freeze.

With central banks speeding though their hiking cycles, a return to rates stability could allow investors to reap the rewards of bond yields that are unusually high for this point in the cycle.