Sharing our convictions

Since the Federal Reserve first cut interest rates in September, we have seen the most aggressive rise in US Treasury yields of any cutting cycle over the past 40 years.

The recent rally in European fixed income has partly been driven by improved economic sentiment, falling inflation expectations, and a more accommodative monetary policy outlook from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE).

Factor investing has long explained market behavior, but its flaws—timing dependencies, rigid linearity, and backward-looking assumptions—limit predictive power. Can AI overcome these? This Expl(AI)ning episode dissects factor evolution, their pitfalls, and how machine learning enables dynamic models. Dive into quantitative investing’s future.

In a week when US core consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to 0.4% month-on-month and Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell told Congress the central bank was in “no hurry” to cut interest rates, many market participants have been surprised by the relatively muted reaction in US Treasuries (USTs).

People and organizations demonstrate their moral compass in challenging conditions. In 1999, portfolio manager Ed Walczak made a tough call to stick to his investment principles. Despite the pressure to conform to the market trend, he chose to invest in undervalued insurance companies, a decision that paid off when the internet bubble burst.

Manufacturing data has been a relentless purveyor of bad news for the best part of the last 24 months, as abnormal growth rates post-Covid turned into a swampy contractionary trend from which the sector has struggled to emerge.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming our world at breakneck speed to boost its users’ productivity gains in various industries. The associated need for innovation, resources, and infrastructure investments, reinforced by politics and demographics, positions the providers of convincing solutions as potential future winners.

As we approach the end of the Q4 2024 earnings reporting season for banks, most are now out of their “blackout” periods which means bond issuance has resumed. Wednesday was an active day in primary markets with a couple of deals that are worth commenting on.

Focusing on the hit rate: not every trade needs to be a winner. Like Federer’s 54% point success that translates into 80% match wins, flipping losing positions can amplify returns. Our latest Quanta Byte explores how even modest improvements in selection can propel consistent portfolio outperformance across market cycles.

Markets had their first taste of Trump Tariffs 2.0 on Monday after levies on Mexican, Canadian and Chinese exports were announced over the weekend.

Is the tech market’s bull run, much like a steamroller, starting to reverse course? Efficiency gains recently announced by DeepSeek have raised questionsabout the commoditization of LLMs and the potential overinvestment in data centers, shifts that could significantly impact the industry and investors.

The massive efficiencies achieved by DeepSeek’s recently launched Large Language Model have prompted investors to reevaluate the power, data center, and chip requirements for the development of AI models. As AI becomes more widely adopted, we identify companies poised to benefit.

Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell had the honour of kicking off the 2025 season for the major central banks this week, swiftly followed by the chore of having to plead the fifth every time he was asked about a President Trump policy.

It has been two weeks since the primary market for collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) re-opened and 2025 has already proven to be quite a year from multiple angles.

You can now watch the replay of our webinar, From campaign to presidency: Trump’s early days in office.

Emerging markets hard currency sovereign debt (EMD) has long held the promise of opportunity, but investor enthusiasm has waned in recent years. Could the tide be turning?

Shares in Nvidia and ASML have plummeted due to concerns that Chinese AI startup DeepSeek's new model could disrupt the current AI business model. DeepSeek's R1 model, released on January 20, exhibits performance similar to top US large language models (LLMs), but at a fraction of the cost.

Much of the discussion around inflation over the past few months has centred on the potential for US tariffs, a focus that has only intensified following Donald Trump’s inauguration.

It has been a busy year in fixed income markets, with Q4 2024 proving to be a pivotal period marked by significant global events, including the US election. TwentyFour Asset Management’s Eoin Walsh looks at the path for interest rate cuts in 2025.

As the fourth quarter of 2024 comes to a close, TwentyFour Asset Management’s Douglas Charleston reflects on the past year’s events and explains why, in his view, the record supply of European ABS and CLOs in 2024 is likely to be matched in 2025.

In what has been a busy start to 2025, TwentyFour Asset Management’s Gordon Shannon looks back on the final quarter of 2024.

One of the key reasons we see credit continuing to outperform government bonds over the medium term is corporate fundamentals.

Will volatility in government bonds continue? Has fixed income seen “peak ESG”? And what will be the biggest driver of returns?

Global rates markets rallied sharply on Wednesday after fixed income investors received some long-awaited good news in the shape of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which came in below consensus in both the US and the UK.