Des convictions partagées

Markets today resemble Aesop’s fable The Boy Who Cried Wolf, with many investors conditioned to dismiss risks after years of shallow, short-lived downturns and swift recoveries fueled by central bank interventions. We believe this complacency has led to higher valuations and reduced defensiveness, creating structural fragility.

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

As fixed income investors, our focus is on how the shock ripples through the variables that matter most for bonds: inflation, growth, and how central banks respond.

Despite the global ESG backlash, companies are continuing to work toward sustainability goals. The Conviction Equities Boutique’s Engagement Report captures the trends emerging for their dialogues and explains the team’s approach.

Our Vontobel experts, Dan Scott, Head of Multi-Asset & CIO; Christoph Boner, Chief Investment Allocation Officer; and Georg Häsler, security and military expert at NZZ, analyzed the latest developments in the Iran conflict. The discussion covered the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the scope for action of the US, China’s role, and the implications for global energy supplies.

Equity markets have become concentrated in a handful of mega-cap stocks, leaving many high-quality small- and mid-cap (SMID) companies overlooked. But what does the combination of concentration, valuation, and structural megatrends mean for investors?

Les chemins de fer jouent un rôle essentiel dans l'acheminement efficace du fret et des matières premières à travers l'Amérique du Nord. Depuis trente ans, ces acteurs ont évolué : autrefois lourdement encadrés, avec des profits égaux ou inférieurs à leur coût du capital, ils exploitent désormais des réseaux peu régulés et à forte rentabilité capitalistique. Leur atout : une infrastructure quasi impossible à reproduire. Cet article évalue l'intérêt d'investir dans les compagnies ferroviaires cotées. Il montre en quoi les mutations du secteur façonneront sa croissance future.

Vontobel’s experts provide their perspective on developments in the Middle East and Iran and discuss the potential impact on emerging market equities and fixed income.

La volatilité a été bien présente depuis le début de l’année, avec une montée des tensions géopolitiques et les craintes croissantes de bouleversements liés à l’IA, mais une petite taille sur les marchés peut s’avérer bénéfique. Le dernier numéro d’Investors’ Outlook se penche sur les évènements récents et les met en perspective.

As the US-Israeli military operation in Iran enters its fourth day, markets are continuing to react to rhetoric from both sides and attempting to gauge how long the conflict may last and what the impact will be on the local and global economies.

The geopolitical risk premium has transitioned from being a mere possibility to a present reality. Here is our perspective on the evolving situation in the Middle East.

We have had an eventful few weeks of AI-driven volatility in markets, with markets seemingly swinging from “everyone’s a winner” to “everyone’s a loser” faster than technological progress itself.

Market focus has shifted in recent weeks from hyperscaler spending to the threat AI could pose to numerous software-as-a-service (SaaS) businesses.

Artificial intelligence (AI) may be one of the greatest technological breakthroughs, but it’s too early to tell. History shows that investment returns don’t always match innovation hype. However, we do know that economic fundamentals have not changed, which means that investments must become self-financing and deliver adequate returns to be sustainable.

Foreign exchange markets have taken centre stage again in recent weeks. President Trump’s apparent indifference to the relatively steep dollar depreciation trend of late has raised a few eyebrows and added fuel to the dollar fire.

2026 is already shaping up to be another volatile year for geopolitics, economies and markets. But one pocket stands out as a key beneficiary of the present backdrop.

Recent developments involving Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell have raised fresh questions around central bank independence, the politicisation of monetary policy, and the future of Fed leadership, particularly with his term as Chair due to expire in May 2026.

L’année a démarré sur les chapeaux des roues, alors que les tensions géopolitiques faisaient monter le volume, affaiblissaient le dollar américain et soutenaient la vigueur de l’or. Mais que réservera l’année 2026 aux investisseurs ? Découvrez-le dans le premier numéro d’Investors’ Outlook de 2026.

Vontobel’s Ed Walczak is among a small number of portfolio managers active today who were also managing money during the dot-com bubble. Ed compares the two time periods and explains how having zero exposure in tech and telecom in the dot-com era, while unpopular, rewarded his investors.

Discover the Q1 2026 Euro IG Credit Outlook, highlighting favorable market conditions, robust credit fundamentals, AI-driven growth, and strategic investment opportunities in key sectors and maturities. Gain insights to navigate the evolving corporate bond landscape effectively.

After a week that saw 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) hit yields not seen since the late 1990’s (and record highs for 30-year and 40-year maturities), alongside one of the most interesting Davos conferences in years, which was held in the shadow of the latest push by President Trump to “acquire” Greenland, it is helpful to take stock of where this leaves the global geopolitical landscape and financial markets.

Two mantras exist among investors when it comes to equity factors. First, you hear that “factors tend to outperform the broader market in the long run”. True. Second, you hear that “timing factors is almost impossible, and that you would be better off with a static allocation”. False. In fact, dynamic timing approaches to factor premia management adds significant benefits over static allocation approaches and in this piece, we show you why

For global bond investors, predictable central bank activities are an important component of long-term strategy. But the Trump administration’s unprecedented pressure on the Fed, including a criminal probe of Chair Jerome Powell, is driving investor fears about the independence of the world’s most important central bank and the reliability of monetary policy.

Les actions des marchés émergents ont connu une année remarquable, mais les investisseurs sont-ils passés à côté de l’opportunité ? Nous ne le pensons pas. En effet, nous considérons que 2025 a marqué la première année de changements positifs pour au moins deux facteurs structurels clés, ouvrant la voie à un nouveau cycle haussier pour les actions des marchés émergents.