Artificial Intelligence

Equity markets have become concentrated in a handful of mega-cap stocks, leaving many high-quality small- and mid-cap (SMID) companies overlooked. But what does the combination of concentration, valuation, and structural megatrends mean for investors?

We have had an eventful few weeks of AI-driven volatility in markets, with markets seemingly swinging from “everyone’s a winner” to “everyone’s a loser” faster than technological progress itself.

En las últimas semanas, la atención del mercado ha pasado del gasto de los hiperescaladores al riesgo que la inteligencia artificial podría suponer para numerosas empresas de software como servicio (SaaS).

La inteligencia artificial (IA) puede ser uno de los mayores avances tecnológicos, pero aún es pronto para saberlo. La historia demuestra que la rentabilidad de las inversiones no siempre se corresponde con el entusiasmo por la innovación. Sin embargo, sí sabemos que los fundamentos económicos no han cambiado, lo que implica que las inversiones deben autofinanciarse y ofrecer rendimientos adecuados para ser sostenibles.

El comienzo del año ha sido especialmente movido. Los titulares geopolíticos han marcado el tono, contribuyendo a la bajada del dólar y a la subida del oro. Pero ¿qué más podría aguardar a los inversores este año? Averígüelo en el primer Investors’ Outlook de 2026.

Vontobel’s Ed Walczak is among a small number of portfolio managers active today who were also managing money during the dot-com bubble. Ed compares the two time periods and explains how having zero exposure in tech and telecom in the dot-com era, while unpopular, rewarded his investors.

Explore the Global Credit Outlook 2026: A concise overview of key trends in global credit markets, from macroeconomic shifts and corporate fundamentals to AI-driven investments and market opportunities. Gain insights to navigate the year ahead effectively.

The 2026 Large Language Models Outlook examines the current state of artificial intelligence as it relates to LLMs, highlighting diversity, specialization, and global competition. Learn how open- and closed-weight models, regulatory approaches, and strategic deployment are shaping industries today, from finance to mathematics, and explore the trends likely to define AI’s trajectory in the year ahead.

The surge in AI capex is driving a rapid increase in bond issuance in the investment grade market. High yield bonds are on track to generate solid returns for 2025; we continue to favor telecoms and energy. The Swiss bond market has once again moved to its own rhythm.

AI is expanding what systematic investing can achieve — from unlocking deeper insights in complex data to building more adaptive, responsive portfolios. This piece explores the shift from classical quant to Quant 2.0 and what a more adaptive, data-driven future could look like.

Si bien el potencial de la inteligencia artificial sigue siendo atractivo, su dominio en el mercado y la dependencia de financiación externa generan vulnerabilidades. Al buscar oportunidades en áreas de crecimiento previsible y resiliencia —tanto dentro como fuera del ecosistema de IA— consideramos que los inversores pueden gestionar mejor las incertidumbres que se avecinan.

For much of the past year, the AI story in markets has been one of unrestrained optimism. Firms have been racing to spend on chips, infrastructure, and data centres, and equity valuations have generally rewarded those with the boldest capital expenditure plans.