Sharing our convictions

We saw a sell-off across the UK Gilt curve on Wednesday with yields rising by 4bp at the short end and 11bp at the long end. This took the 10-year Gilt to 4.80% and the 30-year Gilt to 5.35%, with the latter bringing the unwelcome headline that UK borrowing costs are at their highest since the last century.

It has been a busy start to 2025 in fixed income markets. After the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish December dot plot, which added fuel to a sell-off in rates last month, you might have thought primary market activity would be more cautious than both issuers and investors would have anticipated a month ago.

2025 is poised to be another positive yet complex year for equities. Balancing core positions in industries driven by secular trends – like semiconductors, AI hyperscalers, and the energy transition – with opportunistic exposures that can benefit from cyclical or policy-induced rebounds can help navigate the challenges ahead.

AI has dominated games like chess and Go, but the markets are far more complex. In our latest Expl(AI)ning article, we explore why investing’s complexity remains unmatched, where AI stands today, and what’s next for finance.

Primary market and trading activity may be declining as is typical in late December, but macro data doesn’t sleep, and central banks haven’t got the memo on the wind-down into year-end either with policy meetings at the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

Watch the replay of our webinar featuring Jean Louis Nakamura, Head of Conviction Equities, Sarah Murray, Financial Times Contributor, and Marco Lenfers, Client Portfolio Manager, as they discuss key topics at the intersection of geopolitics, sustainability, and investment opportunities.

Spread tightening has left some market participants nervous about fixed income valuations going into 2025, but we think the drivers of recent credit performance are unlikely to weaken materially in the coming months.

With analysts steadily publishing their projections for 2025 (ours are here), the macro variables that tend to get the spotlight are naturally growth and inflation.

With a macro backdrop of falling rates and solid global growth, TwentyFour Asset Management's Eoin Walsh says fixed income investors can expect healthy total returns in 2025.

Conditions are currently favorable across fixed income markets. But pockets of volatility and risk aversion will challenge even the most skilled investors. The silver lining? We expect risk-conscious, active investors can generate alpha opportunities in 2025 similar to those achieved this year.

Last week, members of TwentyFour’s asset-backed securities (ABS) portfolio management team were in Dana Point, California for the Opal Group CLO Summit, an annual event with over 2,000 participants made up of investors, bankers, CLO managers, service providers and lawyers.

Given the estimated needs for transition financing, the success of impact investing in public markets is critical to achieve the necessary scale. To ensure a growing adoption of impact strategies, it is critical that investment managers deliver measurable impact and at least equivalent financial performance through the cycle compared to “traditional” strategies.

It is important to understand the historical context behind “global” capital rules, and why they differ for EU and US banks.

Despite US stocks' outperformance over international equities over the past two decades, investing solely in the US benchmark is not without risks. Yet we do not recommend investing indiscriminately in the broad international benchmark. Being selective and actively seeking out quality non-US companies can diversify portfolio risks and offer robust performance.

An asset-backed finance (ABF) investment backed by a portfolio of Dutch unsecured consumer loans originated by Qander Consumer Finance.

The new Trump administration’s policies evoke both optimism and apprehension among investors. This uncertainty is exacerbated by the pressures on the US consumer, high market concentration, and potential earnings disappointments. We highlight key themes we believe are worth watching in 2025.

In our latest Quanta Byte, delve into the details and uncover the mathematical foundations of convolutions, their links to AI, and how advanced techniques like the Fast Fourier Transform are driving new efficiencies in computation and quantitative finance.

Markets have been on the move since the US presidential election. However, we think lower funding costs thanks to tightening spreads and the prospect of returning flows are proving supportive of EM debt. But there will be winners and losers in the new regime…

In this month's Flash Fixed Income, we look at how bond markets are reacting to Donald Trump's victory in the US election. With Trump's stated policies widely regarded as being inflationary, we expect a bigger divergence in the path for interest rate cuts between the US and Europe that might favour higher quality European credit.

Former investigative journalists tap into non-traditional sources to gather unique insights for our Quality Growth research team. This article highlights three case studies that led a portfolio manager to increase a position, sell a stock, and revisit the viability of a previous holding.

With Donald Trump’s solid victory helping the dust around the US election result settle faster than many might have expected, investors’ attention has promptly shifted to the potential economic and financial market implications of the new administration.

Watch our livestream where Reto Cueni, Chief Economist and Dan Scott, Head of Multi Asset and Chief Investment Officer, together with Prof. Dr. Stephan Bierling, Head of the Chair of International Politics and Transatlantic Relations at the University of Regensburg, analyze the potential economic factors and implications of the recent US election.

What lies ahead for investors with a Trump-led government? From tax policies to trade, the Multi Asset Boutique dives into market reactions and potential economic impacts.

Gain an intuition on how complex AI architectures actually work. You will see that one model cannot fit all kinds of data. The key to solving problems with AI and surpassing mathematical challenges is to use the right model and the appropriate, high-quality data.