Sharing our convictions

Earlier this month, we wrote about the high cost of staying in cash in the Euro market. In that note, we argued that a combination of inflation, low front-end rates and steeper curves, favoured a rotation out of cash and cash like instruments into other alternatives that delivered better real returns, including credit. Building on this argument, we wanted to extend this perspective to the US dollar market and highlight a few key points.

Backtesting can reveal powerful insights—or create dangerous illusions. In Part I of our mini-series, we show how biases and shortcuts can inflate results, using a simple momentum strategy as an example. Learn why careful design matters before moving from simulation to real-world investing.

The labour market in the UK continues to cool off along the lines of what the Bank of England (BoE) expects. Yesterday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), released its monthly labour market data report, highlighting a rise in the unemployment rate and a reduction in some wage inflation measures.

ESG frameworks have faced rising political pushback and growing skepticism, with some investors questioning the feasibility of climate goals under current political and economic conditions. We believe, even during turbulent times, the transition to a low-carbon economy is here to stay. Read the latest Impact Report for more insights.

With rising temperatures, many investors are drawn to companies that offer adaptation solutions. While adaptation is essential, mitigating climate change and decarbonizing the economy also remain vital. Discover where adaptation and mitigation intersect – particularly in the realm of cooling – and how they can interact to create a more sustainable world.

The sharp sell-off in loans tied to First Brands Group, a US auto-parts supplier, has rippled through credit markets in recent weeks — but for investors' outstanding senior secured loans held in Collateralised Loan Obligations (CLOs), the damage appears modest and distinct from reported off balance sheet financings.

Following years of underperformance, emerging market equities are leading global markets in 2025 to date, driven by a softer US dollar, policy reforms, and renewed investor confidence. With valuations still discounted and structural tailwinds in place, this rally signals a potential long-term shift in global equity dynamics.

France is in the news again. Prime Minister Lecornu became the latest casualty of the French politics saga that began just over a year ago when president Macron called a surprise early election.

As investors face tariffs, muted growth, and geopolitical risk, the Fixed Income team explains how emerging-market investment-grade bonds can provide yield and global diversification.

Tight spreads and elevated supply are often key signs that fixed income markets are overheating. Despite these all being present within the European High Yield market today, the underlying data points to a more measured backdrop characterised by the printing of high-quality new issues, improving credit fundamentals and a stubbornly supportive technical background, offering investors reassurance over the medium-term future of the asset class.

In November 2023, we estimated that holding cash, as opposed to staying invested, could cost investors 10-30% over a three-year period. At the time, we highlighted that interest rates had reached their cyclical peaks and were likely to decrease from that point.

Have you been following Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)? Once promoted as “intelligent leverage” on Bitcoin, they gave investors simple exposure through listed shares. But with ETFs now offering easier and cleaner access, the model faces growing pressure. In this piece, we explore whether DATs are here to stay—or fading fast.

International equities offer long-term structural growth opportunities. Europe is undergoing an economic transformation through defense, technology, and infrastructure investments. In our view, rising US risks, like fiscal deficits, underscore the need for diversification.

Oracle priced an $18bn six-tranche (5yr/7yr/10yr/20yr/30yr/40yr) bond deal which was increased from an initial $15bn on the back of exceptionally strong demand. It is the latest sign that the AI investment boom, long the focus of equity markets, is now spilling into credit.

How can machine learning ensembles be built in practice? From Bagging and Boosting to Stacking, this article explores different ensemble strategies and the role of model diversity. We also examine how ensembles are being applied in financial forecasting, drawing on both academic research and industry experience. Discover how combining models tends to deliver stronger, more resilient predictions in finance.

Following the end of quantitative easing in 2023, the European ABS market has gone from strength to strength and 2025 is set to overtake the post-2008 new issuance record set in 2024.

With the Fed’s stance suggesting it is prioritising growth over sticky inflation risks, volatility in longer dated bonds is likely to persist and the case for increasing duration in fixed income is not compelling.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bp) on Wednesday, exactly as markets had anticipated, marking its first rate reduction since December 2024.

Why rely on one model when many do better? By combining multiple forecasts, ensembles tend to deliver more accurate and resilient results. This first article in our two-part series explores the theory behind model ensembles, linking classic forecasting research with today’s financial machine learning. Discover why combining models consistently outperforms relying on a single predictor.

Has the energy transition stalled due to weakening US policy support? We don’t believe so. In our view, this negative narrative is overly exaggerated and fails to recognize the increasing use of certain mature renewable technologies due to their strategic importance, economic competitiveness, faster implementation and limited technology risks.

You can now watch the replay of our webinar: The new multi-plural world: Macro divergence meets yield

FX is fragmented by nature — and that’s exactly what makes it valuable. Our latest Quanta Byte explores how FX trends offer independent return streams that passive hedging misses. Discover what happens when FX diversification starts doing more than just reducing volatility.

As active managers we are naturally looking for bonds that we believe are mispriced, therefore offering attractive risk-adjusted carry or, sometimes, a capital gain if market pricing falls into line with our view. Equally important is to avoid sectors facing structural or protracted cyclical downturns where we don’t think valuations reflect the fundamentals.

A trio of rating upgrades in European financials late last week has highlighted the strength of fundamentals in the sector. With the proportion of the subordinated financials that is rated investment grade continuing to grow, the wider pool of investors targeting these bonds could help to dampen volatility in the asset class.