Sharing our convictions

It is the nature of financial markets that the trends and risks investors have their eye on at the start of the year are seldom the trends and risks they have their eye on by the end. Below is a selection of charts depicting some key trends we have seen develop in 2025, all of which we believe will have implications for investors heading into 2026.

You can now watch the replay of our webinar: Charting the Path for Fixed Income in 2026.

As we approach the end of 2025, we have been taking stock of the key themes of the year and any lessons we can take from them. It has been a strong year for European high yield (HY) credit, with solid performance for the index as a whole and average yields compressed by around 40bp over the course of the year.

Nothing beats an 11-hour flight back to London for evaluating the outlook for collateralised loan obligations (CLOs), having attended the Opal CLO conference in California.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) published a report setting out a number of proposals for simplifying the regulatory framework for banks.

Looking ahead, we expect continued inflows, rising demand, and reduced supply to support EM hard-currency bonds. For EM local-currency bonds, we believe the current macroeconomic environment remains favorable, despite our conviction in a USD bear market being lower than it was a few months ago.

As we approach 2026, Fixed Income markets are shaped by weaker fundamentals, though lower uncertainty may reduce the likelihood of a catastrophic decline. That said, volatility will remain a defining feature. We believe the year ahead holds great potential for active managers who remain steady at the wheel: cautious but nimble.

The surge in AI capex is driving a rapid increase in bond issuance in the investment grade market. High yield bonds are on track to generate solid returns for 2025; we continue to favor telecoms and energy. The Swiss bond market has once again moved to its own rhythm.

In a K-shaped economy, high-income earners and large corporations thrive while low-income groups and small businesses struggle. This divergence challenges the Fed, as its policy decisions traditionally rely on GDP, unemployment rates, and inflation. However, K-shaped dynamics are often hidden behind these aggregate measures.

As we approach the end of a year that has seen risk assets shrug off US tariffs and mounting concerns over AI-driven tech valuations, TwentyFour Asset Management’s portfolio management team selects the seven key questions that they believe will define 2026 for fixed income investors.

AI is expanding what systematic investing can achieve — from unlocking deeper insights in complex data to building more adaptive, responsive portfolios. This piece explores the shift from classical quant to Quant 2.0 and what a more adaptive, data-driven future could look like.

Late last month, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) published updated migration numbers for the year to June 2025. As we argued here, immigration will be an important variable to monitor when it comes to assessing the health of labour markets.

After solid stress test results from UK insurers last week, on Tuesday it was the banks’ turn as the Bank of England (BoE) published its 2025 stress test results along with December’s Financial Stability Report.

The terms private credit and life insurance have appeared together in multiple negative headlines in recent weeks, and to casual observers the link between the two may not be immediately obvious.

While the promise of AI remains compelling, its market dominance and reliance on external financing create vulnerabilities. By seeking opportunities in areas of predictable growth and resilience – both within and outside the AI ecosystem – we believe investors can better navigate the uncertainties ahead.

Government bonds are primarily driven by moves in their underlying interest rates – and these rates are highly correlated. In this QuantaByte, we show how correlated interest rates really are, and what conclusions an investor can draw to tackle this problem.

The wait is over. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her much anticipated November Budget on Wednesday, ending weeks of rumours and leaks that had created a general feeling that all measures were on the table – now investors, businesses and taxpayers alike can fill in the empty cells on their spreadsheets and calculate what’s left.

The private credit exposure of life insurance firms, particularly those with private equity (PE) owners, has been drawing the market’s attention in recent weeks.

For much of the past year, the AI story in markets has been one of unrestrained optimism. Firms have been racing to spend on chips, infrastructure, and data centres, and equity valuations have generally rewarded those with the boldest capital expenditure plans.

Discover how developed and emerging market corporate bonds may offer stability, diversification, and alpha opportunities. With yields at multi-year highs and improving fundamentals, our experts believe now is the time to unlock the hidden potential of corporate bonds in your portfolio.

You can now watch the replay of our webinar “Under Pressure: Checks and balances in central banks”

October brought the first serious bout of volatility in corporate bond markets for some time, with two high-profile US bankruptcies raising fears of a more systemic issue in credit.

AI models don’t have to be black boxes. In the final article of our Expl(AI)ning series, discover how SHAP values reveal the contributions behind model predictions, enhancing transparency and trust in AI-powered investing. See how we use these insights within our AI Powered process.

Economic data this week will be weird, and for central bankers it might not be wonderful. In the US, not only will we endure the aberration of non-farm payrolls (NFP) data being published on a Thursday, but we’ll also get several late macro data releases with the government shutdown put off until at least January.