Sharing our convictions

The European high yield (HY) default rate spiked higher in May with the largest monthly default volume on record (€6bn).

As markets digest and speculate about the implications of the Trump administration’s 1,000+ page One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), new details are beginning to emerge.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will be alone this week in delivering its latest monetary policy decision, with the next Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan meetings not until the week commencing June 16.

Over the last couple weeks, we have seen an ongoing increase in government bond yields across the major global economies, with a particular focus on Japan as yields on longer dated Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have moved sharply higher.

From deep dives into state and federal probes, to conversations with corporate clients and health plan auditors, our investigative analyst helped identify early warning signs of UnitedHealth Group’ s shift from market leader to a company facing regulatory liability. This case study highlights the benefits that former investigative journalists bring to the Quality Growth research process.

Monday was a somewhat eventful day for markets with several headlines in the US and Europe. Risk assets did not necessarily reflect the eventfulness of the day, finishing virtually unchanged, while rates had a volatile day that ultimately produced a sizeable rally.

Thus far in 2025, the prevailing and overriding topic of conversation amongst economists and market participants has been tariffs and what they might mean for the global macro outlook.

The question for investors now is how much of the macro risk remains, and how well that risk is being reflected in asset valuations.

European banks are coming to the end of the Q1 2025 reporting season, and on the surface there are multiple headwinds to contend with.

With much fanfare, President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer announced a “historic” trade deal between the US and UK on Thursday. The main points for the UK are a reduction in auto tariffs from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 cars that enter the US, and the removal of steel and aluminium tariffs.

April was one of the most volatile months across financial markets in recent memory, triggered by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2.

You can now watch the replay of our webinar “Steering through tougher conditions: finding resilience in quality”.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its first estimate for Q1 US GDP growth, which at -0.3% was slightly worse than the Bloomberg consensus of -0.2% on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), seasonally adjusted, annualised basis.

The AI boom has increased demand for data centers, but US electric utilities lack the capacity to power them. This has led to a rise in self-generation solutions, benefiting companies like Schneider Electric and National Grid. The issue was a key theme at the recent Data Center Dynamics trade show.

The high yield bond market reopened in Europe last week after a three-week hiatus triggered by the US tariffs fallout. Aside from a private placement by Very Group on April 10, the last public European high yield deal was from UK homebuilder Miller Homes on March 31, so we were interested to see how the first post-tariffs deal would be received.

Adaptation solutions are becoming more popular given the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events. While we see the benefits, we urge investors to remember that prevention is better than cure, and mitigation remains vital if we are to ensure a better future for all.

With a week currently feeling like a long time in geopolitics, the European sovereign crisis at the beginning of the last decade feels even more like a distant memory. The road to recovery for Europe’s periphery economies has been long and windy, but post-Covid it has been surprisingly smooth.

Markets settled down last week thanks to the absence of headlines around tariffs. There is a universal acceptance that uncertainty and volatility will remain, though a series of constructive data prints relating to inflation and labour markets have now been navigated, and investors are shifting their focus to how central banks will weigh up the growth and inflationary impact of tariffs at the next round of meetings.

Last week was one of the most volatile on record. President Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs for every country bar China sparked one of the largest rallies in equity indices in recent history.

After a chaotic week in global markets following the tariffs announced by President Trump on April 2, at time of writing (April 10) investors are left to contemplate 125% tariffs on China, a baseline 10% on the rest of the world, 25% on auto imports and a 90-day pause on more punitive rates.

Are traditional factors falling behind? In this Expl(AI)ning Quanta Byte, we explore how AI can breathe new life into factor investing. Discover the concept of AI-powered factors—a smarter, more adaptive approach that turns static models into predictive engines.

Uncertainty and volatility in today’s environment have highlighted the benefits of our disciplined Quality Growth philosophy, focused on proven businesses with inherent resilience and durability. Given the narrow tailwinds from the prior two years, select quality companies are attractively valued given their defensive growth characteristics.

With the market focus over the last week or so being firmly on equities and credit spreads, it is worth zooming in on developments in the European bank credit default swap (CDS) market.

While much of the focus in private credit has been on direct lending, Significant Risk Transfer (SRT) is emerging as a compelling alternative. What began as a regulatory tool is now gaining traction with a growing investor base, as banks look to optimise capital and issuance reaches record highs.