Tapping into the power of AI stocks while mitigating risks

Quality Growth Boutique
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Key takeaways

  • In our view, investing in companies with predictable earnings is a good way to seek to mitigate risks associated with the exuberance around AI.
  • We believe companies that have developed concrete ways to monetize AI by using it to enhance their core businesses are a safer bet than those primarily driven by AI itself.

 

 

The current enthusiasm for AI has triggered a rush to invest in new applications. This is partly driven by ways of improving efficiency and productivity, and partly a competitive response to innovation by peers. Yet in many cases, the prospects of a return on investment for AI-related spend remains uncertain. Over a three to five-year period, there is a risk of capital expenditure on hyperscale capacity chips in anticipation of revenues that may not materialize.

We believe investing in companies with predictable earnings is a sound way to mitigate this risk. Core demand levels for technology companies outside of AI should be supportive, and AI-related demand should provide incremental upside. For example, tech giants Microsoft and Adobe have developed clear and concrete ways to monetize AI by using it to enhance their core businesses. This provides for predictable revenue streams, making these companies a safer bet than those that are primarily driven by AI itself.

Microsoft’s strategy is to package AI features as separate premium priced AI SKUs, which have been branded “Copilot” and emphasize the assistive nature of the technology. Office Copilot represents the biggest potential AI lever, with features such as drafting or editing a memo, responding to an email, creating a PowerPoint presentation based on existing files, or using Excel to analyze data and create charts. Office Copilot should also act as a natural language-based interface that allows users to take advantage of Office’s full capabilities. Copilot’s penetration may be more modest at first, as it will take time for companies to figure out how AI driven tasks drive efficiency across a broader white-collar workforce and how much of that actually accrues to the company. Overall, AI revenues for Microsoft could add up to approximately $25 billion, compared to $245 billion in total revenues in FY24. This would represent an incremental 10% of revenues today, though the initial pace of adoption could be gradual as customers familiarize themselves with a new type of product. Assuming 4-5 years to ramp up, AI could contribute approximately 2% to revenue growth and approximately 3% to EPS growth over the period.

Adobe has been investing in AI and machine learning for a while now, with the 2016 introduction of Sensei, its AI tool for digital marketing as a prime example of the fruits of its labor. By last year, most of Adobe’s customers were using Sensei to speed up and simplify workflow. The recent excitement around generative AI is more evident in Adobe’s digital content creation business. While advanced photo editing capabilities have always been table stakes, Adobe’s new Firefly feature that generates images based on text is quickly becoming a core capability. Adobe’s priority on user experience is driving the discussion on the scale and speed of monetization of AI. Adobe is currently focused on increasing the number of users and expanding the ecosystem. Whether helping with idea generation or delivering more content, AI is helping users become more productive and ultimately more reliant on Adobe solutions.

While Microsoft and Adobe monetize AI through software and cloud offerings and have seen steady growth trajectories, Nvidia is an AI-focused chipmaker. We believe it is difficult to determine the predictability of Nvidia’s revenues due to uncertainty surrounding future demand of its chips. Nvidia’s growth has been extraordinary, but it has also been extraordinarily volatile. In our view, other companies offer exposure to growth potential with lower risk. One example is Synopsys, which provides tools to semiconductor manufacturers for design and verification, and which we believe offers more predictability.

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In a nutshell: focus on realistic and measurable financial returns

When assessing the impact of generative AI, we focus on readily addressable use cases versus dreaming about the long-term possibilities. Enthusiasm for companies that can benefit from generative AI should be coupled with strict valuation discipline. The estimated AI-driven earnings boost should occur over the next few years. However, we believe that the eventual share price impact will depend on companies’ ability to use AI to enhance earnings. As investors, we favor firms that exhibit higher predictability and are positioned to benefit from the structural growth within this sector, ensuring more realistic and measurable financial returns.

 

 

 

 

 

Important Information: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Article provided for informational purposes only to discuss general market and industry trends. Does not constitute investment advice, research, recommendation or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon, and should not be relied on as such to make financial decisions. There is no certainty or indication of similar or future outcomes in connection with the described investment management approach and processes. References to strategy/portfolio holdings (Adobe, Microsoft, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Synopsys) and other companies are for illustrative purposes only as of the date of publication to elaborate on the subject matter under discussion. Information provided should not be considered research or a recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any security nor should any assumption be made as to the present or future profitability or performance of any company identified or security associated with them. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in the strategy at the time you receive this communication, or that securities sold have not been repurchased. Securities discussed may represent only a certain percentage of a portfolio’s holdings. Any projections or forward-looking statements regarding future events or the financial performance of countries, markets and/or investments are based on a variety of estimates and assumptions. There can be no assurance that the assumptions made in connection with such projections will prove accurate, and actual results may differ materially. The inclusion of forecasts should not be regarded as an indication that Vontobel considers the projections to be a reliable prediction of future events and should not be relied upon as such. The views and information provided herein may change at any time and without notice. Investments involve risks. The value of equities (e.g., shares) and equity-related investments may vary according to company profits and future prospects as well as more general market factors. In the event of a company default (e.g., insolvency), the owners of their equity rank last in terms of any financial payment from that company. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All information is from Vontobel unless otherwise noted and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information, and it should not be relied on as such. © 2024 Vontobel.

About the author
matthew_benkendorf

Matthew Benkendorf

Chief Investment Officer Quality Growth, Portfolio Manager

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