Obbligazioni dei mercati emergenti

EM fixed income stayed resilient through the war-induced shock. As oil prices fell, inflation remained contained. Capital inflows resumed after a brief interruption and sovereign rating upgrades continued. We believe the asset class is supported by elevated global risk appetite, attractive local-currency yields, and diversification away from US assets.

I mercati emergenti occupano una quota sempre più ampia dell'attenzione degli investitori. Ma perché? Guarda questi video per avere un quadro generale.

I mercati hanno tenuto sorprendentemente bene nonostante gli elevati livelli di incertezza, l'evoluzione delle aspettative sulla politica monetaria e i rischi di inflazione. C'è un disallineamento?

I mercati emergenti hanno appena superato due grandi shock globali — e ne sono usciti vincitori. A nostro avviso, non si tratta di un caso. Molti investitori hanno mancato il rimbalzo post-Liberation Day rimanendo ancorati a un paradigma che potrebbe non descrivere più adeguatamente l'universo dei mercati emergenti. La stessa errata valutazione rischia di aggravare ulteriormente la potenziale sottoesposizione del portafoglio oggi.

We believe EM fixed income is better positioned today than four years ago, despite uncertainty around the duration of the war and the disruption of oil supply. If de-escalation materializes in the short term, EM bonds may rebound amid a resumption of pre-war trends, including diversification away from US-centric portfolios.

2026 began with the global acknowledgement that the TACO mantra (Trump Always Chickens Out) does not apply to foreign policy. We believe this sends a clear message to leaders of small and medium-sized countries opposing or refusing to cooperate/negotiate with the Trump administration.

Ampliate le vostre conoscenze sulla sottoclasse di investimento delle obbligazioni di mercati emergenti.

Looking ahead, we expect continued inflows, rising demand, and reduced supply to support EM hard-currency bonds. For EM local-currency bonds, we believe the current macroeconomic environment remains favorable, despite our conviction in a USD bear market being lower than it was a few months ago.

As we approach 2026, Fixed Income markets are shaped by weaker fundamentals, though lower uncertainty may reduce the likelihood of a catastrophic decline. That said, volatility will remain a defining feature. We believe the year ahead holds great potential for active managers who remain steady at the wheel: cautious but nimble.

The Brazilian corporate bonds market has recently been demonstrating signs of volatility. Systemic or idiosyncratic? Or both?

Mentre gli investitori fanno i conti con i dazi, una crescita scarsa e i rischi geopolitici, il team Fixed Income ci spiega come le obbligazioni investment grade dei mercati emergenti possano fornire rendimento e diversificazione globale.

Despite questions about the Federal Reserve’s independence, growing US isolationism, and global trade risks, we see a runway for fixed income. Credit fundamentals remain strong alongside robust technicals and improving valuations. Our Fixed Income team shares where they are finding alpha opportunities and why they are cautiously optimistic.