Emerging Markets Bonds

EM fixed income stayed resilient through the war-induced shock. As oil prices fell, inflation remained contained. Capital inflows resumed after a brief interruption and sovereign rating upgrades continued. We believe the asset class is supported by elevated global risk appetite, attractive local-currency yields, and diversification away from US assets.

Los mercados emergentes están captando una parte cada vez mayor de la atención de los inversores. ¿Por qué? Vea estos vídeos para echar un vistazo al panorama general.

Los mercados se han mantenido sorprendentemente bien, a pesar de que las presiones se acumulan bajo la superficie. Desde que estalló la guerra en Oriente Medio en febrero, los inversores han tenido que lidiar con el aumento de los precios de la energía, las renovadas preocupaciones por la inflación y un giro de casi 180 grados en las expectativas de política monetaria.

Los mercados emergentes acaban de capear dos grandes crisis mundiales y han salido airosos. Creemos que esto no es casualidad. Muchos inversores se perdieron el repunte posterior al Día de la Liberación al permanecer anclados en un marco que quizá ya no describe el universo de los mercados emergentes. Ese mismo error de posicionamiento corre el riesgo de agravar hoy la posible subexposición de las carteras.

We believe EM fixed income is better positioned today than four years ago, despite uncertainty around the duration of the war and the disruption of oil supply. If de-escalation materializes in the short term, EM bonds may rebound amid a resumption of pre-war trends, including diversification away from US-centric portfolios.

2026 began with the global acknowledgement that the TACO mantra (Trump Always Chickens Out) does not apply to foreign policy. We believe this sends a clear message to leaders of small and medium-sized countries opposing or refusing to cooperate/negotiate with the Trump administration.

Amplíe sus conocimientos sobre la subclase de activos de los bonos de mercados emergentes.

Looking ahead, we expect continued inflows, rising demand, and reduced supply to support EM hard-currency bonds. For EM local-currency bonds, we believe the current macroeconomic environment remains favorable, despite our conviction in a USD bear market being lower than it was a few months ago.

As we approach 2026, Fixed Income markets are shaped by weaker fundamentals, though lower uncertainty may reduce the likelihood of a catastrophic decline. That said, volatility will remain a defining feature. We believe the year ahead holds great potential for active managers who remain steady at the wheel: cautious but nimble.

The Brazilian corporate bonds market has recently been demonstrating signs of volatility. Systemic or idiosyncratic? Or both?

El equipo de renta fija explica cómo los bonos con grado de inversión de mercados emergentes pueden proporcionar rentabilidad y diversificación global, en un entorno de aranceles, crecimiento apagado y riesgos geopolíticos.

Despite questions about the Federal Reserve’s independence, growing US isolationism, and global trade risks, we see a runway for fixed income. Credit fundamentals remain strong alongside robust technicals and improving valuations. Our Fixed Income team shares where they are finding alpha opportunities and why they are cautiously optimistic.