Emerging Markets Equities

After a multi-decade era of significant economic growth, China is now the second largest global economy and dominant in the MSCI emerging market index. How should emerging market equities investors balance this with the potential implications of recent economic and political moves out of Beijing and shifting demographic patterns?

Low interest rates, declining tax rates, and constrained wages contributed to margin expansion for large US companies over the past decade. Companies whose growth is driven by these temporary factors may be more vulnerable in tough conditions, while quality companies with structural growth drivers designed to succeed in all conditions may prevail.

When comparing the earnings trajectory of emerging markets corporates with that of their developed-market counterparts, many investors consider this a lost decade. Are emerging market stocks now set to bounce back?

After a decade of underperformance, we believe emerging market equities are set for a brighter next chapter and any further short-term pain will be outweighed by the opportunity for longer-term gain. Here are three reasons why:

Structural themes underlie opportunities in the year ahead. Our Quality Growth portfolio managers expect stock performance will be more closely tied to earnings growth, the US consumer will remain healthy, select emerging markets are poised for continued growth, and certain Chinese stocks will benefit from a reopening.

As pressure has been building on Chinese technology stocks given growing regulatory threats, some of the key players in the Chinese internet sector are shifting to a more prudent strategy, pulling back to focus closer on the core business rather than investing in new growth areas.

Chinese equities can offer an exciting and dynamic opportunity, but investors must navigate a complex regulatory environment and quickly changing competitive dynamics. Our research team sheds light on the outlook for e-commerce giant Alibaba, how to approach the A-shares universe and pressing issues investors face in China today.

Even as the broader geopolitical environment and global economic uncertainty continue to impact the headlines on China, strong growth prospects underpin several sectors and companies.

Unlike horses that need blinders to keep them narrowly focused on winning a race, investors should expand their field of vision to consider the risks around them. Matthew Benkendorf, CIO of the Quality Growth Boutique, shares 5 principles that are critical to help successfully navigate emerging markets.

Many emerging markets are more resilient to external shocks than in the past and can better withstand the pressures of a stronger US dollar. And so far, many EMs have been fairly conservative in their use of stimulus in response to Covid-19. This increases the potential for prosperous times ahead.

The ongoing trade war and eroding U.S.-China relationship have been a catalyst for making it less attractive for Chinese companies to seek a public listing in the United States. The Chinese government is finally making good on promises to open up domestic markets to foreign investors. Additionally, Hong Kong and China are taking steps to make local listings more attractive, especially to high-tech start-ups.

Jin Zhang provides insights on changes in the global supply chain, long-term beneficiaries of the trade war, India’s growth prospects and Brazil’s path to reform.