Emerging Markets

Following years of underperformance, emerging market equities are leading global markets in 2025 to date, driven by a softer US dollar, policy reforms, and renewed investor confidence. With valuations still discounted and structural tailwinds in place, this rally signals a potential long-term shift in global equity dynamics.

You can now watch the replay of our webinar: The new multi-plural world: Macro divergence meets yield

With strong fundamentals, broad region and sector diversification, and a track record of weathering financial crises, emerging-market investment-grade (EM IG) bonds have evolved into a high-quality asset class, in our view. Yet, despite a robust risk-return profile, EM IG remains significantly underrepresented in actively managed, dedicated strategies.

Recent market volatility has reinforced the value of alpha over beta. While markets rebounded from recent lows, risks persist – from uncertain trade policy to concerns about debt sustainability. But fixed income remains resilient. We are finding opportunities in local currency EM debt, US high yield, and European investment grade credit.

The US dollar’s reign is faltering, and we believe a prolonged dollar bear market is underway – a scenario that has historically been a tailwind for emerging market economic growth and asset valuations. However, not all emerging equity markets respond equally to the dollar’s decline.

Emerging market (EM) equities are more domestically driven than commonly assumed. Companies in the MSCI EM Index derive over 60% of revenues in their home markets. And they could further reduce their dependence on exports in the future. We illustrate the reasons.

We remain cautiously optimistic about Fixed Income returns. Tail risks are elevated, which dampens our confidence in “risk on” markets. But alpha opportunities still await risk-aware, active investors. Those who try to predict the next major macro shift may find themselves echoing Luke Skywalker’s words, “your overconfidence is your weakness.”

New world order with Trump 2.0 at the helm. New day, new risks. What’s keeping investors awake at the moment and how does this impact EM Fixed Income?

The driving force behind this performance is the Chinese tech sector, fuelled by hopes that a larger adoption of AI could boost earnings. A confirmation of improved earnings, the resurgence of consumption confidence and sequential stabilization of the overall economy will be needed to solidify and extend the recent rally.

2025 is poised to be another positive yet complex year for equities. Balancing core positions in industries driven by secular trends – like semiconductors, AI hyperscalers, and the energy transition – with opportunistic exposures that can benefit from cyclical or policy-induced rebounds can help navigate the challenges ahead.

Conditions are currently favorable across fixed income markets. But pockets of volatility and risk aversion will challenge even the most skilled investors. The silver lining? We expect risk-conscious, active investors can generate alpha opportunities in 2025 similar to those achieved this year.

The new Trump administration’s policies evoke both optimism and apprehension among investors. This uncertainty is exacerbated by the pressures on the US consumer, high market concentration, and potential earnings disappointments. We highlight key themes we believe are worth watching in 2025.