Global High Yield Bonds

In the US and Japan, monetary policy is expected to support fiscal policy, even when central banks have other plans. Federal Reserve “Fed” Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's reform plans conflict with US President Donald Trump's preference for low rates, and the Bank of Japan's efforts to normalize policy clash with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's economic agenda.

As we approach 2026, Fixed Income markets are shaped by weaker fundamentals, though lower uncertainty may reduce the likelihood of a catastrophic decline. That said, volatility will remain a defining feature. We believe the year ahead holds great potential for active managers who remain steady at the wheel: cautious but nimble.

The surge in AI capex is driving a rapid increase in bond issuance in the investment grade market. High yield bonds are on track to generate solid returns for 2025; we continue to favor telecoms and energy. The Swiss bond market has once again moved to its own rhythm.

In a K-shaped economy, high-income earners and large corporations thrive while low-income groups and small businesses struggle. This divergence challenges the Fed, as its policy decisions traditionally rely on GDP, unemployment rates, and inflation. However, K-shaped dynamics are often hidden behind these aggregate measures.

Despite questions about the Federal Reserve’s independence, growing US isolationism, and global trade risks, we see a runway for fixed income. Credit fundamentals remain strong alongside robust technicals and improving valuations. Our Fixed Income team shares where they are finding alpha opportunities and why they are cautiously optimistic.

We view short-dated high-yield bonds trading below par as a compelling opportunity given the elevated volatility in long-end rates. These bonds offer a combination of attractive carry, potential for capital appreciation if called or tendered at a premium, and resilience against broader market volatility.

Strong performance across markets in January has left some investors feeling they’ve missed out on the rally in bonds. No need to worry, says Felipe Villarroel.

With projections for European growth and inflation being hastily revised in early 2023, the region’s bonds are still paying investors a premium that may not be around for long, says Dillon Lancaster.

Looking back to previous cycles in the high yield market, data have shown down periods have usually given way to strong returns years. While spreads are set to stay volatile until inflation starts to slow down, Portfolio Manager Stella Ma sees valuations becoming more attractive as we near the end of 2022.

With some UK bank bonds now trading with higher yields than their counterparts in Turkey, Mark Holman questions whether the dumping of UK and sterling assets has gone too far.

With Europe facing an energy crisis and the UK bracing for a five-quarter recession, a strong allocation bias to the US seems a no-brainer. However, George Curtis says that when looking at relative value in fixed income, the decision is never that simple.

Pierre Beniguel explains why high yield issuers are selling new bonds at steep discounts to par value, and why this represents an opportunity to build potentially significant performance into fixed income portfolios going forward.