Emerging Market Bonds Review Q3 and Outlook Q4

Los mercados se han mantenido sorprendentemente bien, a pesar de que las presiones se acumulan bajo la superficie. Desde que estalló la guerra en Oriente Medio en febrero, los inversores han tenido que lidiar con el aumento de los precios de la energía, las renovadas preocupaciones por la inflación y un giro de casi 180 grados en las expectativas de política monetaria.

As we head into the summer, credit markets are navigating an increasingly complex landscape. Inflation pressures are building up - particularly in Europe - while central banks are diverging in their policy responses, with most preparing for tighter monetary policy. Meanwhile, recent market volatility has created dispersion across sectors and rating categories, opening doors for active managers.

Los mercados emergentes acaban de capear dos grandes crisis mundiales y han salido airosos. Creemos que esto no es casualidad. Muchos inversores se perdieron el repunte posterior al Día de la Liberación al permanecer anclados en un marco que quizá ya no describe el universo de los mercados emergentes. Ese mismo error de posicionamiento corre el riesgo de agravar hoy la posible subexposición de las carteras.

In the US and Japan, monetary policy is expected to support fiscal policy, even when central banks have other plans. Federal Reserve “Fed” Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's reform plans conflict with US President Donald Trump's preference for low rates, and the Bank of Japan's efforts to normalize policy clash with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's economic agenda.

We believe EM fixed income is better positioned today than four years ago, despite uncertainty around the duration of the war and the disruption of oil supply. If de-escalation materializes in the short term, EM bonds may rebound amid a resumption of pre-war trends, including diversification away from US-centric portfolios.

In investment grade, several hyperscalers raised capex projections, driving record-breaking bond issuance. AI-related investments are heightening correlation risks and reshaping index compositions. In high yield, AI disruption creates risks and opportunities, particularly in software. The AI-capex trend has impacted the Swiss bond market, where new issuance remained elevated.