Reviews & outlooks

The forecast-defying strength of the US economy has been one of the key drivers of financial markets in recent quarters, but as economic prospects diverge, Europe is where we see the better relative value in fixed income today.

Are stock markets poised for a good year in 2024? Jean-Louis Nakamura, head of the Convictions Equities Boutique takes a comprehensive look at the various factors that indicate it may well be.

We’ve likely reached peak interest rates as disinflation paves the way for an economic slowdown. The 2024 outlook from our Fixed Income Boutique explains why.

Legendary investor Charlie Munger, who recently passed away, followed a simple philosophy of “soldiering on” – persevering through challenging times while also knowing when to seize opportunities. Munger’s wisdom guides us as we manage key risks and seek to find opportunities in 2024.

Markets surged in early November as the Fed appeared more dovish and the US economy showed signs of cooling. This could turn out to be a false dawn but currently the odds seem favorable for the bulls to maintain control – at least for now. In response, our allocation models are making notable shifts: ceasing equity overweight reduction and establishing a small bond overweight – the first since May.

Consensus expectations are that we could be nearing the end of the rate-hiking cycle. What does this mean for fixed income investors and Global Investment Grade in particular, and how do these typically change at the inflection of rate cycles?

Luc D’hooge and Wouter Van Overfelt review the developments of the Emerging Markets Debt and Emerging Markets Corporate Bond strategies they manage.

October challenged investors with rising yields, robust growth, and ongoing central bank inflation battles. Recession risks grow amidst uneven global recovery, yet China's stabilization offers hope. Allocation models are adjusting, reducing equity overweight and bond underweight, reflecting a gradual normalization of yield curve steepness.

The September Fed meeting was a surprise with its hawkish tilt which went hand in hand with upward GDP forecast revisions and lower recession risks. The question now is whether the Fed's willingness to keep rates 'higher for longer' is a calculated risk in combating inflation or a policy misstep. Our models estimate that a recession may not be immediate but cannot be ruled out, especially for H1 2024. In response, they continue to reduce their equity overweight as well as their bond underweight.