Sharing our convictions

Inflation and interest rates still wrestle over the fate of the economy. Meanwhile, equities have had a pretty good run so far this year. However, when commodity prices started climbing earlier this summer, they had to give up some of the gains revealing underlying uneasiness over the trajectory of inflation and the economy.

After a difficult 2022, bonds may be poised for unusually high returns compared to historic averages. And not just in the US -- we see opportunities in European CLOs and RMBS. They offer double digit yields for short-dated debt and look very attractive on a relative value basis compared to domestic credit.

As governments around the world provided support in various manners during the pandemic, savings ratios increased to levels that were twice as large as the previous all time highs in some countries. Felipe Villarroel takes a look at some countries' spending vs savings monthly data patterns and lays out what he thinks this means for fixed income investors.

Bank bonds have been amongst the best performing asset classes in fixed income over the last few months, doing their bit in proving their strength.

For now the much-feared recession has been staved off thanks to a resilient consumer. However, the risk is not off the table yet which has prompted our models to take a small step back from maximum equity allocations. While they stay optimistic, they have now started to treat the asset class with a grain of salt while bonds don’t seem to be able to find their way out of the dog’s house.

Luc D’hooge and Wouter Van Overfelt review the developments of the Vontobel Fund – Emerging Markets Debt and Vontobel Fund – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond and share their forecast for the remainder of 2023.

Inflation has dominated headlines and investors’ conversations. Some are wondering whether we should be bracing for a second wave – especially when comparing today’s trend with that of the 1970s.

Felipe Villarroel looks at the preliminary numbers for July PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services data, and how from a markets point of view, he thinks volatility will remain in place while both rates and spreads should trade in a range as we await for more clarity on whether inflation will allow Central Banks to pause and the extent of the slowdown in H2, particularly considering August is looming.

What level of risk are investors willing to take? As central bank rates hike and a soft landing narrative makes its way into analysts’ forecasts, Eoin Walsh takes a look at what affects this has on investment risk and reinvestment risk.

Jack Daley takes a look into the economic events that have influenced the investment grade markets in Q2. He then goes on to explain why he believes investment grade fixed income offers the most attractive risk-adjusted returns currently available.

In our MSB update, Charlene Malik, reflects on the banking turmoil that occurred in Q2, as well as happenings around the US debt ceiling and global inflation. She then goes on to discuss the ways the MSB team have responded to Q2 events.

Douglas Charleston believes European ABS has once again provided a rare bright spot for fixed income. He explains how, from Q1 to Q2, focuses have shifted, and delves into different macro-economic variables affecting the ABS market.