Sharing our convictions

Can the top 2% make all the difference? The Quantitative Investments team tested an AI-powered stock picker across 20 years of data. By analysing hit rates alongside market concentration and dispersion, they uncovered fresh insights into portfolio management. Discover how AI reshapes investing in our latest article.

There is an emerging sense of unease in the markets around the scale and productivity of corporate investments in AI. As fixed income investors, not equity or tech managers, we will not aim to assess the longevity or possible applications of these nascent technologies, and nor should we opine on when or by how much equity markets might go up or down.

Political influence over monetary policy can undermine long-term economic stability, with a potential impact on investor confidence, bond markets, and the broader economy. This article explores scenarios ranging from zero influence to a mild erosion of US Federal Reserve independence to outright political capture.

Jerome Powell and his Federal Reserve (Fed) colleagues decided to cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bp to 3.75-4% at last week’s policy meeting, marking 150bp of cuts since the cycle began in September 2024.

Amid tariffs, bankruptcies, and uncertainty, credit fundamentals remain strong. Elevated yields and solid corporate balance sheets favour income-focused fixed income strategies over government bonds, even as volatility persists.

Oil prices have been gathering headlines in the last few weeks. After falling below the $60 per barrel mark, the West Texas Intermediate price (WTI) bounced back strongly as a result of fresh sanctions announced against the two Russian giants, Lukoil and Rosneft.

AI-driven momentum trades and non-US value dominated markets in 2025. However, the sustainability of these trends remains uncertain, particularly given unproven ROI of AI investments. Amid this backdrop, quality stocks emerge as a prudent choice, offering both resilience and steady growth potential.

Backtests can mislead—or unlock real edge. In Part II of our mini-series, we show how to avoid common pitfalls, cut through bias, and turn backtests into a reliable tool for decision-making. Practical, actionable, and built for real-world investing.

As we begin the final stretch of 2025, market conditions appear challenging. Inflation remains sticky across a range of economies, preventing major central banks from enacting rapid rate cuts to support GDP growth.

Amidst an economic data blackout caused by the US government shutdown, markets received a bit of positive news on Friday with the release of the US CPI report which showed consumer prices in September increased at a slower pace than expected.

France’s chronic government paralysis repeatedly created headlines this month, and fixed income markets are rightly worried about the sustainability of French government borrowing levels. Meanwhile, forecasts of a £50bn blackhole in the UK’s public finances are keeping gilt yields elevated and have made this November’s UK Budget a potential flashpoint.

Earlier this month, we wrote about the high cost of staying in cash in the Euro market. In that note, we argued that a combination of inflation, low front-end rates and steeper curves, favoured a rotation out of cash and cash like instruments into other alternatives that delivered better real returns, including credit. Building on this argument, we wanted to extend this perspective to the US dollar market and highlight a few key points.

Backtesting can reveal powerful insights—or create dangerous illusions. In Part I of our mini-series, we show how biases and shortcuts can inflate results, using a simple momentum strategy as an example. Learn why careful design matters before moving from simulation to real-world investing.

The labour market in the UK continues to cool off along the lines of what the Bank of England (BoE) expects. Yesterday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), released its monthly labour market data report, highlighting a rise in the unemployment rate and a reduction in some wage inflation measures.

ESG frameworks have faced rising political pushback and growing skepticism, with some investors questioning the feasibility of climate goals under current political and economic conditions. We believe, even during turbulent times, the transition to a low-carbon economy is here to stay. Read the latest Impact Report for more insights.

With rising temperatures, many investors are drawn to companies that offer adaptation solutions. While adaptation is essential, mitigating climate change and decarbonizing the economy also remain vital. Discover where adaptation and mitigation intersect – particularly in the realm of cooling – and how they can interact to create a more sustainable world.

As fixed income investors face inflation surprises, tariff rhetoric and growing concerns around central bank independence, Gordon Shannon, Partner and Co-Head of Investment Grade, explains why the focus remains on resilience.

In our latest Multi-Sector Bond quarterly update, Jakub Lichwa, Portfolio Management, discusses why we retain a favourable view on credit despite tighter spreads.

In our latest Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) quarterly update, Aza Teeuwen, Partner and Co-Head of ABS, explains how strong CLO issuance, robust investor demand and tightening spreads have driven a standout year for the European ABS market.

The sharp sell-off in loans tied to First Brands Group, a US auto-parts supplier, has rippled through credit markets in recent weeks — but for investors' outstanding senior secured loans held in Collateralised Loan Obligations (CLOs), the damage appears modest and distinct from reported off balance sheet financings.

Following years of underperformance, emerging market equities are leading global markets in 2025 to date, driven by a softer US dollar, policy reforms, and renewed investor confidence. With valuations still discounted and structural tailwinds in place, this rally signals a potential long-term shift in global equity dynamics.

France is in the news again. Prime Minister Lecornu became the latest casualty of the French politics saga that began just over a year ago when president Macron called a surprise early election.

As investors face tariffs, muted growth, and geopolitical risk, the Fixed Income team explains how emerging-market investment-grade bonds can provide yield and global diversification.

Tight spreads and elevated supply are often key signs that fixed income markets are overheating. Despite these all being present within the European High Yield market today, the underlying data points to a more measured backdrop characterised by the printing of high-quality new issues, improving credit fundamentals and a stubbornly supportive technical background, offering investors reassurance over the medium-term future of the asset class.