Renta fija

Los mercados emergentes acaban de capear dos grandes crisis mundiales y han salido airosos. Creemos que esto no es casualidad. Muchos inversores se perdieron el repunte posterior al Día de la Liberación al permanecer anclados en un marco que quizá ya no describe el universo de los mercados emergentes. Ese mismo error de posicionamiento corre el riesgo de agravar hoy la posible subexposición de las carteras.

Las fuertes oscilaciones en los mercados de bonos públicos y corporativos desde el inicio del conflicto en Oriente Medio plantean cuestiones interesantes para los inversores en renta fija.

TwentyFour Asset Management’s Jack Daley reflects on a strong start to 2026 for investment grade credit, before geopolitical escalation in the Middle East drove increased volatility later in the quarter and shaped market conditions.

TwentyFour Asset Management’s Felicity Juckes discusses how geopolitics, inflation and shifting risk sentiment shaped fixed income markets in the first quarter of 2026, and why the focus has remained on high‑quality credit.

TwentyFour Asset Management's Aza Teeuwen reflects on a volatile start to 2026, and explains why European ABS continues to provide relative stability over the quarter, particularly in investment grade.

Los titulares negativos en torno al crédito privado se han intensificado este año, a medida que el sell-off en activos de software y la «restricción de reembolsos» en varios fondos minoristas han acrecentado la presión sobre el sector.

We believe EM fixed income is better positioned today than four years ago, despite uncertainty around the duration of the war and the disruption of oil supply. If de-escalation materializes in the short term, EM bonds may rebound amid a resumption of pre-war trends, including diversification away from US-centric portfolios.

In investment grade, several hyperscalers raised capex projections, driving record-breaking bond issuance. AI-related investments are heightening correlation risks and reshaping index compositions. In high yield, AI disruption creates risks and opportunities, particularly in software. The AI-capex trend has impacted the Swiss bond market, where new issuance remained elevated.

In the US and Japan, monetary policy is expected to support fiscal policy, even when central banks have other plans. Federal Reserve “Fed” Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's reform plans conflict with US President Donald Trump's preference for low rates, and the Bank of Japan's efforts to normalize policy clash with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's economic agenda.

Vontobel’s experts discuss how geopolitics, inflation and credit are shaping the outlook for fixed income, exploring the impact of the Middle East crisis, diverging paths between the U.S. and Europe, and where value opportunities may emerge across credit markets.

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

Como inversores en renta fija, nos centramos en cómo la crisis repercute en las variables más importantes para los bonos: la inflación, el crecimiento y la respuesta de los bancos centrales.