Sharing our convictions

In his latest video, George Curtis discusses our views on high yield defaults over the last few months and what he thinks we can expect in 2021

Elena Rinaldi looks back at the performance of European CLOs in 2020 and explains how post-vaccine sentiment should help boost recovery in 2021, providing a positive outlook for CLOs.

Partner and portfolio manager Gary Kirk discusses why he thinks AT1s continue to look attractive in the search for yield. 

While we enter 2021 with plenty of negative headline news on the virus, along with the associated inevitable downgrade or delay to the economic recovery, in our view the technical position remains just as firm as it has been in the last nine months.

Yesterday the ECB released their guidance to banks regarding shareholder distributions. They have reiterated that banks should exercise extreme moderation on variable remuneration (bonus payments) and have set limits for dividend payments to equity holders and prudence on any share buy-back schemes.

As we are nearing the end of 2020 and assessing pockets of potential value going into 2021, we have to question the strong rally we have just experienced and assess the attractiveness of the hybrid spread multiple and whether or not we can expect further compression.

ESG investing was tipped to be the biggest theme of 2020 for financial markets, but was swiftly superseded by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has dominated investors’ thoughts since Q1. We thought it was important to revisit this topic and explore if and how the pandemic has changed the world of ESG.

Understanding potential value destruction from climate change is challenging. A strong framework can significantly improve visibility. There are hundreds of companies that appear to have value at risk from climate change greater than their market capitalization – climate zombies. Insights on where to find, and value, risks in this blog.

We have now retraced some 90% of the March widening in European high yield (on a spread basis and relative to the January tights), a recovery trend we expect to continue as economies open up and demand bounces back. 

Speed of market movement will be a feature of this recovery as the market realises many of the same trends are firmly in place, and with the incredible technical backdrop this means lower yields as the cycle progresses.

Where can investors find opportunities? Where are the pockets of risk to avoid? Our portfolio managers explore consumer behavior in the tech and consumer staples sectors, and growth in emerging markets. We expect investor focus to shift from virus-induced disruptions to the pace of economic healing and we remain confident about market prospects ahead.

2020 has not been an ideal year for those investors with a nervous disposition, as we have endured an unprecedented level of uncertainty soothed by an equally unprecedented level of monetary and fiscal stimulus

So while we certainly expect unemployment to increase across Europe, and we expect more borrowers will fail to pay their mortgages, we believe current mortgage performance is very far away from a level that would threaten coupon and principal payments in the major European RMBS markets.

Why should investors care about ESG and why has the focus on ESG increased over the last several years? We believe the answer lies partly in the uncertain times in which we live. ESG shines a light on stability. It is not a luxury, but a critical part of risk management.

The gradual backup in yields since the onset of the pandemic has given Treasuries a little more potency to protect bond portfolios, though we don’t see the rise being anywhere near big enough for them to behave like they used to.

Regular readers will know that we have a positive medium term view of spread products. This is based on a number of factors; valuations in our view are reasonably attractive compared to history, we are convinced that both monetary and fiscal stimulus will remain in place for an extended period of time, and perhaps most importantly we remain at a very early stage of the new cycle.

Thursday’s ECB meeting left us in little doubt that we should expect some serious action in December, including the possibility of some new, as yet unused measures.

Unlike horses that need blinders to keep them narrowly focused on winning a race, investors should expand their field of vision to consider the risks around them. Matthew Benkendorf, CIO of the Quality Growth Boutique, shares 5 principles that are critical to help successfully navigate emerging markets.

Having fallen behind other markets in the post-COVID rally due to a lack of direct central bank support, we believe European ABS is set to outperform other parts of fixed income in the coming months as supply wanes and investors look to pick up on what we think could be a compelling relative value opportunity.

Barclays announced its results for the third quarter of 2020 this morning, with a number of media outlets opting to focus on a 6% year-on-year reduction in top-line income.

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s brilliant partner, famously remarked that their investment approach was “simple, but not easy.” After nearly 40 years of investing, Portfolio Manager Ed Walczak explores how the Quality Growth team aims to overcome the many challenges investors face today in determining the “true” value of a company.

History is a good reminder that it is difficult to predict market reactions, and that elections do not have as tremendous consequences on markets as people may believe. Market anxiety over election impact is generally over-exaggerated. The underlying health of the economy and corporate profit growth, ultimately, are the factors that will impact stock prices.

Many emerging markets are more resilient to external shocks than in the past and can better withstand the pressures of a stronger US dollar. And so far, many EMs have been fairly conservative in their use of stimulus in response to Covid-19. This increases the potential for prosperous times ahead.

Unlike the past six months, where nearly all new deals performed well in the secondary market, from here on in that is far from guaranteed. Expect winners and losers.