Sharing our convictions

Crucially while the Fed may wait to see the evidence, markets won’t, and we therefore expect a ‘second wave’ of Treasury selling to happen well before then.

Airbnb’s stock soared after its IPO, but it is not yet profitable and faces many competitive threats. Meanwhile, its rival Booking Holdings is an established leader with a proven business model and a more earth-bound valuation. We think Booking is a true quality company with a solid track record, not a speculative bet.

Having been at the heart of the GFC and then contributing to the Eurozone sovereign crisis, we have long argued the European banking sector would have to prove its newfound resilience to investors by successfully navigating a challenging period.

Tobacco company bond spreads were volatile last week on news that the Biden administration is exploring a ban on menthol cigarettes and may pursue a policy to reduce nicotine levels in all cigarettes to non-addictive or minimally addictive levels. Rumours about an increased tobacco tax also surfaced, further shaking up the industry.

While higher interest and inflation rates may more predominantly impact owners of long-duration assets in a variety of ways, they are also simply a positive signal of strong economic growth, which is a good thing. They also should enable for a more generally healthy pricing environment for risk assets. Higher interest rates are not necessarily something terrible to be only feared.

Had this happened a month ago, we suspect the move would be materially more pronounced, and the muted reaction indicates to us that markets are now quite comfortable with the current levels of expected growth, forecast inflation, and yields.

George Curtis discusses how credit markets have performed in Q1 2021 and provides his outlook for the year ahead.

What is most interesting about the CS situation though is that to us it illustrates the ability of large banks to bolster capital when such events occur, and the range of options they have to do it.

TwentyFour Asset Management CEO, Mark Holman, explains why the likes of Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio are warning investors away from fixed income, and points out where he thinks they’re wrong.

TwentyFour Asset Management CEO, Mark Holman, explains why he believes investors should still be starting their search for income in bonds, and how they can look to combat further rates weakness by looking globally and targeting the right areas in credit.

With US President Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid relief package, alongside the recently proposed $2.25 trillion in infrastructure projects, there is growing concern about the impact these programs could have on inflation and interest rates globally. In the investment world, we have been operating amid declining rates and low inflation for so long that few may realize the impact rising rates would have on investment returns.

ESG conscious investors, ourselves included, of course, are applauding this brave decision by Barclays to put their conscience before profit, but they are not the first to do so.

Stop fraud bleeding returns. Fraud from related party transactions, kickbacks and fiddling the books can run for years. The steps to minimize risk are based on 3 governance structures – independence from management is key. Amazing how often they are not in place, especially in some markets.

TwentyFour partner and portfolio manager Gordon Shannon looks at the developments we saw in investment grade credit in the first quarter of 2021 and provides his outlook for the rest of the year.

This recent stability in the rates curve suggests to us that for now the market is listening to the Fed’s rhetoric and as a result the UST market feels better balanced.

TwentyFour AM partner and portfolio manager Douglas Charleston discusses how ABS markets have performed in the first quarter of 2021 and provides his outlook for the rest of the year.

All-star New York Yankees pitcher Lefty Gomez once said: "I'd rather be lucky than good.” Successful investing over time is, however, not a game of luck. It requires discipline, skill and a focus on quality. Investors can prepare for a downturn by focusing on quality businesses with predictable earnings growth.

With treasury yields moving aggressively higher this year, anyone reading or listening to the financial press will have become very accustomed to headlines highlighting the negative performance of “Bonds”.

TwentyFour Asset Management partner and portfolio manager, Chris Bowie, looks at the specific challenges faced by investors wanting to invest sustainably in the bond markets and considers two controversial examples in Tesla and Coca-Cola.

There are many other aspects of SFDR to discuss and we expect the market to take some time to fully adjust.

Primary deals launched in the European high yield market over the last two weeks have been diverse, and at times opportunistic.

In terms of execution, it is difficult to assess any ‘ESG premium’ in Brass 10 given the overall strong demand, and in our view it’s still early to weigh the importance of a ‘social’ label for ABS investors.

What makes the internet high-speed, a phone smart and many other consumer products safer and more efficient? Semiconductor chips. They are at the heart of emerging technologies. We believe the industry has entered a new phase of growth that is characterized by higher profitability and lower earnings volatility.

The Fed maintained its dovish stance on Wednesday and offered very little in the way of resistance to the ongoing rise in US Treasury yields.