Sharing our convictions

Can iPhone growth keep up after a super cycle? What will be Apple’s next major new product? With a mixed track record of launching new services, regulatory risks to the current App Store model, and a valuation that is not compelling, investors should be concerned around Apple’s future growth.

Last week Oodle Financial Services successfully priced its fifth UK Auto ABS transaction, Dowson 2022-1.

As this remarkable cycle rapidly progresses, thoughts have more recently turned to the chances of a US recession in 2023, and whether the Fed can somehow pull off a soft landing.

Given the twin pressures of inflation and volatility, we believe the inherent strengths of short term bonds can give investors some comfort through this uncertain phase of the cycle.

The reshaping of Deutsche Bank since the end of the global financial crisis has been one of the longest-running transformation stories in the banking sector.

Growth in 2022 is likely to be above historical averages for most developed economies, even after adjusting forecasts for the impact of the Russian invasion.

Last week both the Fed and the BoE hiked rates by 0.25%, and judging by the Fed's dot plots and comments from the Bank of England (BoE), more hikes will likely follow in the coming months.

Officially the Fed pivoted from its ‘transitory’ inflation rhetoric in December last year.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered fresh debate about ESG considerations in fixed income, particularly when it comes to emerging markets assets.

The hawkishness of the Fed on Wednesday paved the way for the Bank of England (BoE) to follow suit.

Central banks must temper inflation at a time of geopolitical crisis, historically high valuations, slowing economic growth, declining equity markets, and a flattening yield curve – clearly not an environment for the faint of heart. Quality growth stocks, relative winners during times of persistent inflation, can be a portfolio stabilizer in challenging times.

Soaring inflation was already a dominant theme for markets coming into 2022. The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have only exacerbated its expected rise, and pushed its expected peak further out.

The much-anticipated March FOMC meeting is finally upon us, and given there was no meeting in February investors will be very glad of this window into the Fed’s thinking, particularly given the ongoing and far-reaching economic ramifications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

We think a base case that central banks will follow a more measured monetary policy path than markets are currently pricing in is reasonable given the current backdrop.

Global bond markets have moved sharply in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as investors have tried to assess the impact of an unprecedented raft of financial and economic sanctions.

What do Tiffany jewelry, Gerber baby food, and Milwaukee power tools have in common? They are all iconic American consumer brands owned by non-US based companies. In our view, US index funds and active managers that invest only in US-based companies are missing out on some American gems.

Default rate estimations depend on how you define defaults and what index you use, but there is no doubt we are at record lows in European high yield at the moment.

What does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine portend for China and Taiwan? How do you identify quality companies amid unpredictable regulatory and political environments? How should you consider absolute risks on a country level? Cheryl Gedvila, Client Portfolio Manager, addresses these difficult questions to help investors navigate markets today.

Last year the Fortune 500 had a record 41 women CEOs. Yet US women earned just $83 for each $100 by men on average, reflecting the corporate ladder’s ‘broken rungs.’ This blog looks at female led company profiles, workplace headwinds for women, and ways to improve the flow of meritocracy.

European bank equity has been among the hardest hit sectors since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as fears of losses and a flight to quality have prompted investors to change positioning.

Unglamorous stock research, resisting the whims of the markets, and preparing for the worst can be downright boring. But it’s a great way to find quality international companies that can help reduce portfolio risk and improve downside protection – exciting results during these uncertain times.

Escalating geopolitical tensions have contributed to a volatile past week for investors, but uncertainty regarding central bank action continues to dominate the bond markets, with one investment bank now predicting nine straight hikes from the Fed beginning at its March meeting.  

So far this year, the spread between two-year and 10-year US Treasury yields has declined from 77bp to 51bp.

Yield curve shape and yield curve change are often good predictors of the state of the economy and its outlook.