Sharing our convictions

Dillon Lancaster evaluates the impact of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on inflation and why he believes next month is set to be a very important period for central bank meetings.

The circular economy, popularized by expressions such as “zero waste”, “right to repair”, or “from farm to fork”, is rooted in the knowledge that resources are finite. Companies that manage to reduce their consumption of raw materials are likely to increase their profits and market share, which will ultimately benefit investors. Past examples of corporate successes based on the circular economy include the Italian Vespa scooter.

Discussing sustainability matters with Chinese companies is rewarding and challenging. Part of it is fact-finding, part of it is education. But investors need to tread with caution, and little extras such as talking Chinese help, says Hong Kong-based ESG analyst Gayle Chan. She also explains the approach of mtx Equities, citing a concrete example.

With Europe facing an energy crisis and the UK bracing for a five-quarter recession, a strong allocation bias to the US seems a no-brainer. However, George Curtis says that when looking at relative value in fixed income, the decision is never that simple.

Investors are eyeing a peak in inflation once more after US data came in lower than expected for the first time this year, and with credit finally seeing positive flows again, George Curtis sees markets grinding tighter over the rest of the summer.

Fixed rate bond yields may have climbed as markets priced in higher interest rates, but both existing and new investors in floating rate bonds have more to gain as central banks keep hiking, says Pauline Quirin

With the Bank of England doling out a double dose of doom on UK inflation and growth on Thursday, Eoin Walsh says it is refreshing for investors to get such a candid assessment from a central bank.

With bank Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds broadly trading at a 10% discount to par and many being priced to perpetuity, Dillon Lancaster suggests investors are either missing or ignoring the solid fundamentals on show in Q2 earnings.

Pierre Beniguel explains why high yield issuers are selling new bonds at steep discounts to par value, and why this represents an opportunity to build potentially significant performance into fixed income portfolios going forward.

European ABS issuers largely held off on printing new deals in Q2 as broader market volatility saw spreads widen, but we are already seeing more investor-friendly structures and many favoured names are likely to bring deals offering markedly higher yields when activity picks up again.

With earnings season entering full swing, David Norris highlights some indicators to look out for when assessing the current state of the US economy and the resulting actions expected from the Fed.

Gordon Shannon reviews Q2 2022 in fixed income and breaks down the resulting risks and opportunities he sees in short term bonds.

A member from our Multi-Sector Bond team reviews the main market drivers in the second quarter of 2022 and explains how the Strategic Income team is tackling today’s environment.

Douglas Charleston looks at the development of the European ABS market in the second quarter of 2022 and explains what this could mean for investors going forward.

US banks remain bullish about the health of the consumer, but credit spreads are still pricing in not only a recession, but a fairly severe one. Are the banks wrong? Or have credit markets just backed up too far on negative fund flows?

With yields on B rated CLO bonds now as high as 18%, Elena Rinaldi looks at various scenarios for corporate default rates and questions why investors are overshooting even the most pessimistic scenarios.

With corporate bond spreads having risen to not far short of crisis levels, Johnathan Owen argues the 4%-plus yields on offer in short dated investment grade are an attractive entry point for investors that might not be around for long.

With Heimstaden showing its commitment to corporate hybrids with a €600m tender offer, Pierre Beniguel looks at the complex decision issuers have to make and says more could follow suit with bonds trading at steep discounts.

European ABS and CLOs had a turbulent Q2 as broader macro headwinds sparked heavy selling, but investors have made good use of direct trading to pick up bonds at prices not seen since Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

Political chaos is once again taking the headlines in the UK, but bond investors should be cheering the UK regulator’s decision to raise banks’ capital buffers in preparation for an anticipated economic downturn, says Gary Kirk.

With investors seemingly unwilling to put money to work until they see clear evidence of the inflation trend reversing, Felipe Villarroel looks at two developments that tentatively suggest central banks’ delicate balancing act is actually working.

After H1 2022 broke market records for all the wrong reasons, Gary Kirk says fixed income outflows could reverse quickly if investors see evidence that central banks are turning the tide on inflation.

How can you find growth in times of panic? Difficult markets are not to be feared. Investors need an optimistic resolve and a clear roadmap: identify businesses with sustainable and predictable earnings streams, pricing power, and lower leverage, and avoid stocks trading at exorbitant multiples that are vulnerable to higher discount rates.

In this fixed income mid-year outlook, Portfolio Manager Carlos de Sousa, explains why the overlooked and much maligned emerging market local-currency asset class may be the phoenix of fixed income.