Sharing our convictions

What’s behind the demands for unions globally? When are higher wages a threat to the bottom line? And which companies are best placed to manage the risk? In his back-to-basics blog on organized labor, Sudhir Roc-Sennett answers these critical questions for investors.

Luc D’hooge, Head of Emerging Markets Bonds and Wouter Van Overfelt, Head of Emerging Market Corporates, provide a review on the developments in 2022, the current positioning of the strategies as well as an outlook for 2023.

Strong performance across markets in January has left some investors feeling they’ve missed out on the rally in bonds. No need to worry, says Felipe Villarroel.

The euphoria in the financial markets has been driven by falling expectations of a severe recession. Although our models continue to indicate a US recession, this is likely to begin later in the year. This means there is no contradiction in the equity overweighting that is currently suggested by our model.

In our view, European credit now represents a strong medium term value opportunity that investors cannot afford to ignore.

2022 was a stormy year for bonds. As 2023 gets under way, our Fixed Income Boutique heads predict whether bonds are set for a smooth touchdown or a bumpy landing amid the continuing headwinds in the global economy.

High yield markets entered the year at an attractive entry point and investors can enjoy the power of high carry with still solid credit fundamentals. Turning the page on a challenging 2022, the Global High Yield Bond team is hopeful 2023 will be a fortunate year for many things, especially income.

As China readies for the Year of the Rabbit, there are several causes for celebration, says Fixed Income Boutique Credit Analyst Cosmo Zhang. Economic recovery could come earlier and stronger than expected in the first quarter of 2023, as mobility and supply chains return to normal despite a Covid surge.

TwentyFour Portfolio Manager, Jack Daley, discusses how the short term bond strategy has performed in Q4 2022 and provides his outlook for the new year.

Pierre Beniguel discusses market conditions in Q4 2022.

TwentyFour Partner and Portfolio Manager, Douglas Charleston, describes the developments of the ABS market in Q4 2022.

While European ABS was not immune to negative returns amid the considerable fixed income headwinds of 2022, it gave investors largely what they look to this allocation for – lower volatility and better performance than mainstream bonds. In our view, the forward-looking opportunity looks equally compelling.

With projections for European growth and inflation being hastily revised in early 2023, the region’s bonds are still paying investors a premium that may not be around for long, says Dillon Lancaster.

As new regimes emerge, so do new words to explain them. Understanding the world, one geopolitical term at a time.

Traditional investment strategies unraveled in 2022 amid geopolitical and energy crises. As 2023 gets under way, these negative trends have started reversing, giving our Corporate Credit team comfort about the prospects for the European investment grade credit market in the months ahead.

Should we blindly follow a machine? Or is human judgment needed to make weighed decisions? We believe that man and machine must act as a team to achieve the best results. That's why we developed the Wave, which is based on a big data approach and serves as a compass in our investment process.

Recent employment data suggests the US economy may escape with a soft landing, a welcome boost to market sentiment in the early days of 2023, says Eoin Walsh.

The yield curve and our models point to a high probability of recession. But how severe will the U.S. recession be? To answer this question, we exploit historical data to examine the impact of the tightening cycle on GDP growth. The results show that investors should exercise caution in 2023.

Welcome to 2023! At the start of the new year, bonfire rituals across the globe celebrate the time for renewal. Our Global Corporate Bond team have evaluated perspectives for the market by asking themselves the ten most burning questions for the year ahead – and finding the answers.

The markets are still unimpressed by the approaching recession. This is the case even though aggressive interest rate rises, an inverse yield curve, the global “contraction” status of the Wave, and the similarities between the current market environment and 1989 as highlighted by our risk model all clearly suggest that 2023 is likely to see economic collateral damage.

After a decade of underperformance, we believe emerging market equities are set for a brighter next chapter and any further short-term pain will be outweighed by the opportunity for longer-term gain. Here are three reasons why:

Is it now the time to invest in emerging markets fixed income? As 2023 progresses, there are strong arguments for this asset class. We also believe risk concerns remain manageable. Waiting on the sidelines was perhaps the smartest thing to do in 2022, but may not be the best strategy next year.

As one of the newest partners of the Financial Times’ Moral Money Forum, we take the opportunity to introduce who we are and what Vontobel does in its latest report.

The Politburo, the top decision-making body of the Chinese Communist Party, announced last week a document focusing on the country’s economic growth in 2023. Meanwhile, the Chinese government also started to exit its zero-Covid-policy, much sooner than anticipated. These intentions signal an earlier-than-expected recovery of the Chinese economy.