Reviews & outlooks

Market participants are eagerly awaiting the Fed meeting in mid-December. How it chooses to tackle inflation will determine the severity of the recession, which our models – especially the Wave and the risk model – are now clearly signaling.

Following a difficult and volatile 2022, there are sound reasons to believe that EM equities could deliver a strong rebound in 2023. Along with compelling relative valuations of EM equities, we identified three key cycles that have the potential to provide a positive boost to EM equities next year.

The bear market has not yet reached its end. Meanwhile, concerns are also rising that economic stagflation - an economic situation in which stagnant growth is accompanied by inflation - could develop. This view is shared not only by our proprietary business cycle model, whose contraction signals are strengthening, but also by the continuously rising credit spread, which has reached levels of past recessions this month.

Our models are signaling that not only the economy but also the risk environment is deteriorating further. Possible further interest rate hikes are weighing on both equity and bond markets, with no relief in sight at present.

The Corporate Credit team reveals how they plan to navigate the fourth quarter of 2022

Our models signal that we are still in troubled waters. Moreover, the data do not yet give the green light for a sustained economic recovery. The bear market therefore still has room to run.

With 2022 expected to be a more challenging year for markets, in his annual outlook TwentyFour Asset Management CEO Mark Holman explains how he believes investors can avoid some big macro headwinds and still target “sensible fixed income-like returns” next year.

TwentyFour Asset Management CEO, Mark Holman, looks at five big questions hanging over fixed income as investors look ahead to 2022.

Market sentiment reflects growth that will continue at past levels, yet economies and businesses globally are facing stiff headwinds – high government debt, rising inflation, and supply chain bottlenecks. As markets shrug off risks, expect volatility and a divergence in company performance in 2022.