Over the past few years, structural views of the world have increasingly diverged between two extremes: while many investors believe we have now entered a regime of persistently higher inflation and interest rates, others are convinced the world should soon revert to its previous low growth/low inflation regime. Wherever the actual landing zone might be for the global economy, investors’ continued swing between these extreme scenarios is likely to feed regular disruptions and higher structural volatilities in a context of unprecedented transformations due to the ongoing environmental and technological transitions.
While macro top-down strategies may try to time those shifts, bottom-up fundamental stock pickers must stick to the companies most likely to muddle through such successive waves due to their specific characteristics and/or pure exposures to themes supported by new secular tailwinds.
“In markets subject to spectacular environmental and technological transitions, rapidly moving perceptions, and structurally higher volatilities, long-term investors should focus on resilient stocks. These in our eyes ideally combine strong quality characteristics, including solid sustainability credentials, with pure exposures to new secular trends.”
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We believe quality stocks are resilient investments, offering the best risk-adjusted return in the long term. The definition of quality, however, needs to be expanded beyond its traditional financial perimeter. Of course, it includes companies with high and stable profitability as well as strong industry positioning. But already profitable businesses with pivotal roles in themes key to the environmental, energy, social, and AI-driven transition should also be included in this universe of resilient stocks.
The Conviction Equities Boutique, headquartered in Zurich, focuses on resilient business models, selected through unconstrained, benchmark-agnostic, but repeatable and disciplined investment processes. Its seasoned investment teams are convinced of the value added of environmental, social, and governance criteria or impact targets when such criteria or targets are defined and combined consistently with specific investment philosophies as well as distinct strategies.