Quality Growth Boutique

The AI boom has increased demand for data centers, but US electric utilities lack the capacity to power them. This has led to a rise in self-generation solutions, benefiting companies like Schneider Electric and National Grid. The issue was a key theme at the recent Data Center Dynamics trade show.

Investors have been chasing their favorite AI names around the track, without considering how they could sustain their earnings growth for a prolonged period or through a recession. As long-term investors, we aim to remain focused on resilient companies with durable business models, which we believe will finish the race.

Navigating challenging markets requires assessing earnings and revenue trends and digging into balance sheets. But financial metrics alone can be backward looking. A fundamental understanding of industries, companies, and markets can provide important insights that can help avoid hidden risks and identify overlooked growth drivers.

We believe answers to critical questions about weight loss drugs will help determine the sustainability of success that some pharmaceutical stocks have enjoyed: How many people will be on the drug, and at what price? Which pharma company will be the winner of the R&D race?

As the landscape shifts, investors may now be exposed to risks that were previously disguised by a prolonged era of accommodative monetary policy. Today, it pays to be wary. A focus on quality can protect in a downturn and provide a smoother ride through the cycle.

Legendary investor Charlie Munger, who recently passed away, followed a simple philosophy of “soldiering on” – persevering through challenging times while also knowing when to seize opportunities. Munger’s wisdom guides us as we manage key risks and seek to find opportunities in 2024.

How can you find growth in times of panic? Difficult markets are not to be feared. Investors need an optimistic resolve and a clear roadmap: identify businesses with sustainable and predictable earnings streams, pricing power, and lower leverage, and avoid stocks trading at exorbitant multiples that are vulnerable to higher discount rates.

Like the end of a long evening of revelry, the decline in the fortunes of momentum growth and value companies leaves the Quality Growth investors, in our opinion – still standing. Companies with pricing power, low debt, and consistent earnings may be the slow but steady winners in the race to beat the market.

Bear markets do not send advance warnings. But investors can pay attention to red flags. Valuation multiples are well above the long-term average and consensus estimates are bullish on earnings growth. The good news is that investors can prepare for macro uncertainty and minimize capital loss.

The Chinese government has recently instigated a far-reaching crackdown on privately-owned businesses in China. Chinese shares listed on foreign exchanges have reacted more negatively than A-shares to this increased government intervention. What risks does this pose to foreign investors and how can they prudently navigate the equity markets of China and Hong Kong?

High-growth, high-momentum stocks were among the best performers of 2020, then value stocks rallied into the first quarter of this year. We are cautious of valuations, as some stocks have already priced in a recovery. Investing in quality companies with predictable earnings power at reasonable valuations can help investors prepare for a rainy day.

Why should investors care about ESG and why has the focus on ESG increased over the last several years? We believe the answer lies partly in the uncertain times in which we live. ESG shines a light on stability. It is not a luxury, but a critical part of risk management.