Monetary Policy

As this publication returns from its summer break, there are plenty of pieces to put together. But the signals coming from the economy and markets don’t necessarily all add up to the same conclusion. In the latest Investors’ Outlook, we connect the dots to get a better sense of what may come next.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz reignited inflation concerns and prompted major central banks into a more hawkish stance. While inflation has risen, we believe the shock is temporary, making further ECB and Fed tightening unlikely. An additional hike from the BoJ is likely, in our view, but it risks moving too slowly.

With the first half of the year behind us, the latest Investors’ Outlook explores the topics that have occupied markets, including what mega-IPOs could mean for equity markets, whether easing geopolitical tensions might help cool inflation concerns, and what may lie ahead for the UK economy.

As we enter the home stretch of the first half of the year, one of the main questions is what the war in the Middle East may mean for the economy’s trajectory this year. The Multi Asset Boutique shares its views in the latest Investors’ Outlook.

UK government bond yields have pushed higher this month as markets have digested a building political crisis, with the prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, now set to face a Labour Party leadership contest following dire local election results on May 7.

Sharp swings in government and corporate bond markets since the onset of the Middle East conflict pose interesting questions for fixed income investors.

In the US and Japan, monetary policy is expected to support fiscal policy, even when central banks have other plans. Federal Reserve “Fed” Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's reform plans conflict with US President Donald Trump's preference for low rates, and the Bank of Japan's efforts to normalize policy clash with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's economic agenda.

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

Recent developments involving Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell have raised fresh questions around central bank independence, the politicisation of monetary policy, and the future of Fed leadership, particularly with his term as Chair due to expire in May 2026.

Discover the Q1 2026 Euro IG Credit Outlook, highlighting favorable market conditions, robust credit fundamentals, AI-driven growth, and strategic investment opportunities in key sectors and maturities. Gain insights to navigate the evolving corporate bond landscape effectively.

For global bond investors, predictable central bank activities are an important component of long-term strategy. But the Trump administration’s unprecedented pressure on the Fed, including a criminal probe of Chair Jerome Powell, is driving investor fears about the independence of the world’s most important central bank and the reliability of monetary policy.

Explore the Global Credit Outlook 2026: A concise overview of key trends in global credit markets, from macroeconomic shifts and corporate fundamentals to AI-driven investments and market opportunities. Gain insights to navigate the year ahead effectively.