Macroeconomics

We saw a sell-off across the UK Gilt curve on Wednesday with yields rising by 4bp at the short end and 11bp at the long end. This took the 10-year Gilt to 4.80% and the 30-year Gilt to 5.35%, with the latter bringing the unwelcome headline that UK borrowing costs are at their highest since the last century.

Primary market and trading activity may be declining as is typical in late December, but macro data doesn’t sleep, and central banks haven’t got the memo on the wind-down into year-end either with policy meetings at the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

Conditions are currently favorable across fixed income markets. But pockets of volatility and risk aversion will challenge even the most skilled investors. The silver lining? We expect risk-conscious, active investors can generate alpha opportunities in 2025 similar to those achieved this year.

With a macro backdrop of falling rates and solid global growth, TwentyFour Asset Management's Eoin Walsh says fixed income investors can expect healthy total returns in 2025.

With Donald Trump’s solid victory helping the dust around the US election result settle faster than many might have expected, investors’ attention has promptly shifted to the potential economic and financial market implications of the new administration.

With elevated yields and inflation expected to come back to target, we think investors can target a level of real return that was extremely difficult to achieve in the previous cycle.

With cracks starting to show in the US economy, many are wondering whether tight corporate bond spreads leave investors vulnerable. But with corporate balance sheets holding firm and yields on higher quality bonds looking attractive, staying invested in credit should continue to reward investors.

Uncertainty is over, it was a 50 basis points (bps) move. As we mentioned in our previous blog, the most important take away from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting would be their assessment of the economy.

While the majority of headlines have concerned whether the Fed will do 25bp or 50bp to kick off its cutting cycle, we think this is only one part of the discussion – and not necessarily the most important one.

Find your footing amid ever-changing conditions with Vontobel’s new Fixed Income Quarterly. The launch edition finds our Fixed Income team feeling very balanced, very buoyant, and very bold. Read on to discover why.

In his headlining speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell’s message to the market was clear.

Recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data brought good news for investors and central banks.