Monetary Policy

Since the Federal Reserve first cut interest rates in September, we have seen the most aggressive rise in US Treasury yields of any cutting cycle over the past 40 years.

In a week when US core consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to 0.4% month-on-month and Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell told Congress the central bank was in “no hurry” to cut interest rates, many market participants have been surprised by the relatively muted reaction in US Treasuries (USTs).

Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell had the honour of kicking off the 2025 season for the major central banks this week, swiftly followed by the chore of having to plead the fifth every time he was asked about a President Trump policy.

The latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data on Friday showed ongoing resilience in the US labour market. To quote the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, “the labor market seems to be stabilizing at something close to a full employment rate.” Is he right?

We saw a sell-off across the UK Gilt curve on Wednesday with yields rising by 4bp at the short end and 11bp at the long end. This took the 10-year Gilt to 4.80% and the 30-year Gilt to 5.35%, with the latter bringing the unwelcome headline that UK borrowing costs are at their highest since the last century.

2025 is poised to be another positive yet complex year for equities. Balancing core positions in industries driven by secular trends – like semiconductors, AI hyperscalers, and the energy transition – with opportunistic exposures that can benefit from cyclical or policy-induced rebounds can help navigate the challenges ahead.

Conditions are currently favorable across fixed income markets. But pockets of volatility and risk aversion will challenge even the most skilled investors. The silver lining? We expect risk-conscious, active investors can generate alpha opportunities in 2025 similar to those achieved this year.

With a macro backdrop of falling rates and solid global growth, TwentyFour Asset Management's Eoin Walsh says fixed income investors can expect healthy total returns in 2025.

It is important to understand the historical context behind “global” capital rules, and why they differ for EU and US banks.

The new Trump administration’s policies evoke both optimism and apprehension among investors. This uncertainty is exacerbated by the pressures on the US consumer, high market concentration, and potential earnings disappointments. We highlight key themes we believe are worth watching in 2025.

Watch our livestream where Reto Cueni, Chief Economist and Dan Scott, Head of Multi Asset and Chief Investment Officer, together with Prof. Dr. Stephan Bierling, Head of the Chair of International Politics and Transatlantic Relations at the University of Regensburg, analyze the potential economic factors and implications of the recent US election.

With Donald Trump’s solid victory helping the dust around the US election result settle faster than many might have expected, investors’ attention has promptly shifted to the potential economic and financial market implications of the new administration.