Monetary Policy

With elevated yields and inflation expected to come back to target, we think investors can target a level of real return that was extremely difficult to achieve in the previous cycle.

With cracks starting to show in the US economy, many are wondering whether tight corporate bond spreads leave investors vulnerable. But with corporate balance sheets holding firm and yields on higher quality bonds looking attractive, staying invested in credit should continue to reward investors.

Uncertainty is over, it was a 50 basis points (bps) move. As we mentioned in our previous blog, the most important take away from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting would be their assessment of the economy.

Find your footing amid ever-changing conditions with Vontobel’s new Fixed Income Quarterly. The launch edition finds our Fixed Income team feeling very balanced, very buoyant, and very bold. Read on to discover why.

In his headlining speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell’s message to the market was clear.

It feels as though market news hasn’t taken a holiday so far this summer. From the US on Wednesday we got the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) July 30-31 policy meeting, and revisions to a whole year of non-farm payrolls (NFP) data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS).

How do you manage the impact of market volatility driven by election outcomes? Matthew Benkendorf, CIO of our Quality Growth Boutique, shares ways to help mitigate risks and stay focused on business fundamentals that point to enduring quality.

Investors have been chasing their favorite AI names around the track, without considering how they could sustain their earnings growth for a prolonged period or through a recession. As long-term investors, we aim to remain focused on resilient companies with durable business models, which we believe will finish the race.

Last month saw the European Central Bank (ECB) get their cutting cycle underway with a 25bp cut in the deposit rate to 3.75%. However, any expectations for a rapid series of reductions after the first move were tempered by President Christine Lagarde, who at the subsequent press conference was clear that the ECB could move in phases in which they left interest rates unchanged.

One of the drivers of the dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December was the acknowledgement that the risks to the policy outlook had become more two-sided. In other words, while higher rates were still needed to tame inflation, the Fed saw a risk that staying restrictive for too long and risk damaging a labour market that has so far shown remarkable resilience.

With most central banks presumably at highs in terms of monetary policy rates during the current cycle, the focus has rightly shifted to the timing of the first cut. 

We’ve likely reached peak interest rates as disinflation paves the way for an economic slowdown. The 2024 outlook from our Fixed Income Boutique explains why.