Sharing our convictions

Quality investing in the fixed income sector is as much about making sure that we avoid the losers as it is about trying to pick the winners.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will almost certainly start their rates cutting cycle next month. Supportive inflation data and clear guidance from the governing council has driven market implied probabilities of a June cut to almost 100%, with little in the way to derail that.

The first four months of this year have seen €11.6bn in gross Additional Tier 1 (AT1) issuance from European banks, across euros, dollars and sterling markets.

In this Back to Basics webinar, Jakub Lichwa (Portfolio Management) from our Multi-Sector Bond team gave their valuable insights into the importance of maintaining sufficient levels of bank capital to uphold financial stability.

Quality companies can keep pace with bull markets due to above-average profitability and consistent growth prospects. In bear markets, investors flock to quality companies as their stable earnings and strong balance sheets can minimize drawdowns. While now may be the time for quality, this style can perform well in different market regimes.

With its most recent escalation, the Israel-Hamas conflict now threatens to spread and become a broader conflict in the region.

Corporate hybrids are bonds issued by companies that combine characteristics of both debt and equity.

The beginning of a new year is often when we look to change the way we behave, but how we invest can also influence our behavior. From inspiring confidence to encouraging discipline, our Chief Economist, Dr Reto Cueni examines how investing in quality can have positive effects on investor behavior.

The increasing capabilities of Artificial Intelligence (AI) have made the technology one of the most hotly discussed and debated topics in the public discourse, and its impact on multiple facets of business and society is indisputable. An open question remains: will it be a net positive or negative overall?

Over the course of last week, we saw several headlines around Additional Tier 1s (AT1s). First, the Dutch Finance Ministry indicated it is exploring the possibility of modifying or abolishing the asset class.

Fresh water is an essential but scarce resource, plentiful in some regions and sparse in others. On World Water Day, our Chief Economist Reto Cueni examines the global risk landscape related to water scarcity, and possible solutions to alleviate a growing problem.

In this Back to Basics webinar, Aza Teeuwen (Partner, Co-Head of ABS) and Elena Rinaldi (Portfolio Management), provided a comprehensive understanding of the key aspects and trends within the European CLO market.

Is ESG simply a different label for quality or could quality stand as a less controversial and politically sensitive description of highly sustainable companies? The question of whether ESG characteristics of listed companies form a new independent factor and a distinctive source of returns is an important one to address.

The end of rising interest rates in Europe and the US, attractive yields, and lower-than-expected default rates mean investors can get higher income without taking on as much risk as they had to in the past. In our view, less volatile, high quality fixed income products are poised for strong performance in 2024.

Many US investors are overweight domestic versus international strategies for the wrong reasons – home bias and benchmark anchoring. In our view, investors should focus on great companies, regardless of where they are domiciled. An active international strategy can help US investors expand their opportunity set, diversify risks, and improve their portfolio returns.

A company’s competitive advantages are referred to as its moat. Far from castles and the countryside, it is important to analyze the strength and durability of a company’s moat before investing. Since moats can be wide or narrow and change over time, competitive advantages must be constantly monitored.

Japan’s economic success story after World War II was like a phoenix rising from the ashes. But it didn’t last, resulting in the “Lost Decade” and China subsequently taking its place as the world’s second-largest economy. Comparing the Japan of yesteryear with today’s China raises the question whether China could soon face a similar fate.

Adding women to corporate boards can improve the impact a board has on company performance. Yet progress has been slow. Companies that recruit former CFOs and CEOs simply cannot find enough female board members. Expanding talent pools can bring more women into the fold.

Over the last decade investors have been forced to broaden their horizons, but many investors continue to overlook Emerging Market Local Currency Debt. Our Fixed income team offers five reasons why you should think about giving emerging markets local currency a more permanent allocation in your investment portfolio.

Almost a year ago to the day, we were in the midst of banking sector turmoil, which started off with regional banks in the US and spilled over to Europe, eventually culminating in the forced merger between Swiss banks UBS and Credit Suisse.  

We believe answers to critical questions about weight loss drugs will help determine the sustainability of success that some pharmaceutical stocks have enjoyed: How many people will be on the drug, and at what price? Which pharma company will be the winner of the R&D race?

The January US consumer price index (CPI) data came in stronger than expected with core month-on-month figures coming in at 0.4 % (0.3% expected) and year-on-year figures at 3.9% (3.7% expected) but unchanged from December’s 3.9% print.

After some troubled years, bonds are back. In a big way. Our team explains the reasons why we believe bonds are poised to be one of the most attractive risk/reward propositions of the coming year.

What does the environment look like for Credit in 2024? And what are the fundamentals for emerging-market corporates this year? Wouter Van Overfelt and Mondher Bettaieb-Loriot discuss some of the hot topics for fixed income in emerging markets and developed markets, respectively.