Sharing our convictions

TwentyFour Partner and Portfolio Manager, Gordon Shannon, describes the developments of the short term bond strategy in Q1 2022.

TwentyFour Portfolio Manager, Elena Rinaldi, explains how European ABS markets behaved in Q1 2022 and provides her outlook for the year ahead.

TwentyFour Partner and Portfolio Manager, Eoin Walsh, discusses market conditions in Q1 2022 and provides his outlook for the year ahead.

So far, most fixed income asset classes have experienced a tumultuous 2022. With high yield markets bucking the trend in recent weeks, George Curtis takes a closer look at the drivers of the sector’s recent strength and its current opportunity set.

As pressure has been building on Chinese technology stocks given growing regulatory threats, some of the key players in the Chinese internet sector are shifting to a more prudent strategy, pulling back to focus closer on the core business rather than investing in new growth areas.

Despite the ECB's recent review bringing some previously debated points surrounding AT1s to the forefront, we believe any changes would create undesired, real-world consequences if implemented.

With inflation running at 40-year highs in many parts of the world, it is easy to get carried away with making comparisons to the dark economic days of the early 1980s. 

Can iPhone growth keep up after a super cycle? What will be Apple’s next major new product? With a mixed track record of launching new services, regulatory risks to the current App Store model, and a valuation that is not compelling, investors should be concerned around Apple’s future growth.

Last week Oodle Financial Services successfully priced its fifth UK Auto ABS transaction, Dowson 2022-1.

As this remarkable cycle rapidly progresses, thoughts have more recently turned to the chances of a US recession in 2023, and whether the Fed can somehow pull off a soft landing.

Given the twin pressures of inflation and volatility, we believe the inherent strengths of short term bonds can give investors some comfort through this uncertain phase of the cycle.

The reshaping of Deutsche Bank since the end of the global financial crisis has been one of the longest-running transformation stories in the banking sector.

Growth in 2022 is likely to be above historical averages for most developed economies, even after adjusting forecasts for the impact of the Russian invasion.

Last week both the Fed and the BoE hiked rates by 0.25%, and judging by the Fed's dot plots and comments from the Bank of England (BoE), more hikes will likely follow in the coming months.

Officially the Fed pivoted from its ‘transitory’ inflation rhetoric in December last year.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered fresh debate about ESG considerations in fixed income, particularly when it comes to emerging markets assets.

The hawkishness of the Fed on Wednesday paved the way for the Bank of England (BoE) to follow suit.

Central banks must temper inflation at a time of geopolitical crisis, historically high valuations, slowing economic growth, declining equity markets, and a flattening yield curve – clearly not an environment for the faint of heart. Quality growth stocks, relative winners during times of persistent inflation, can be a portfolio stabilizer in challenging times.

Soaring inflation was already a dominant theme for markets coming into 2022. The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have only exacerbated its expected rise, and pushed its expected peak further out.

The much-anticipated March FOMC meeting is finally upon us, and given there was no meeting in February investors will be very glad of this window into the Fed’s thinking, particularly given the ongoing and far-reaching economic ramifications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

We think a base case that central banks will follow a more measured monetary policy path than markets are currently pricing in is reasonable given the current backdrop.

Global bond markets have moved sharply in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as investors have tried to assess the impact of an unprecedented raft of financial and economic sanctions.

What do Tiffany jewelry, Gerber baby food, and Milwaukee power tools have in common? They are all iconic American consumer brands owned by non-US based companies. In our view, US index funds and active managers that invest only in US-based companies are missing out on some American gems.

Default rate estimations depend on how you define defaults and what index you use, but there is no doubt we are at record lows in European high yield at the moment.