Sharing our convictions

From our perspective, the potential wage pressures we see make us uncomfortable with 10-year Treasury yields at current levels, despite their significant rise since the start of the year.

Even as the broader geopolitical environment and global economic uncertainty continue to impact the headlines on China, strong growth prospects underpin several sectors and companies.

Having witnessed the most remarkable turnaround in risk markets over the last 14 months, it makes sense to take stock as fundamentals look to us to be approaching optimal levels. Credit spreads have ground into levels not far from the prior cycle’s tights, and while we remain confident in the underlying fundamentals and a good technical backdrop, recent developments mean that despite this constructive view, our risk appetite has ticked down slightly.
 

At 8.1m, the number of job openings as of March 31 was the highest it has been since the data series began some 20 years ago.

Markets can often be tricky for investors in May as bond issuers take advantage of a window of opportunity following the Q1 earnings season and ahead of the typical summer lull. This often results in heavy supply in late April and early May, hence the old trader adage of “sell in May and go away”.

While the US is home to many global leading companies, it is not the be-all and end-all for investors. Actively allocating to international equities can bring the benefits of diversification. We believe a portfolio that combines the best of domestic and international quality growth equities is the right choice for long-term investors today.

As long as coal usage is not illegal, a private buyer of any origin will be able to purchase these assets cheaper and run them for as long as possible with no regard for ESG matters.

There has been a lot of focus on the performance of the high yield markets since the start of the year, particularly in Q1 when many rates markets were selling off aggressively.

Crucially while the Fed may wait to see the evidence, markets won’t, and we therefore expect a ‘second wave’ of Treasury selling to happen well before then.

Having been at the heart of the GFC and then contributing to the Eurozone sovereign crisis, we have long argued the European banking sector would have to prove its newfound resilience to investors by successfully navigating a challenging period.

Airbnb’s stock soared after its IPO, but it is not yet profitable and faces many competitive threats. Meanwhile, its rival Booking Holdings is an established leader with a proven business model and a more earth-bound valuation. We think Booking is a true quality company with a solid track record, not a speculative bet.

While higher interest and inflation rates may more predominantly impact owners of long-duration assets in a variety of ways, they are also simply a positive signal of strong economic growth, which is a good thing. They also should enable for a more generally healthy pricing environment for risk assets. Higher interest rates are not necessarily something terrible to be only feared.

Tobacco company bond spreads were volatile last week on news that the Biden administration is exploring a ban on menthol cigarettes and may pursue a policy to reduce nicotine levels in all cigarettes to non-addictive or minimally addictive levels. Rumours about an increased tobacco tax also surfaced, further shaking up the industry.

Had this happened a month ago, we suspect the move would be materially more pronounced, and the muted reaction indicates to us that markets are now quite comfortable with the current levels of expected growth, forecast inflation, and yields.

George Curtis discusses how credit markets have performed in Q1 2021 and provides his outlook for the year ahead.

What is most interesting about the CS situation though is that to us it illustrates the ability of large banks to bolster capital when such events occur, and the range of options they have to do it.

TwentyFour Asset Management CEO, Mark Holman, explains why the likes of Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio are warning investors away from fixed income, and points out where he thinks they’re wrong.

TwentyFour Asset Management CEO, Mark Holman, explains why he believes investors should still be starting their search for income in bonds, and how they can look to combat further rates weakness by looking globally and targeting the right areas in credit.

With US President Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid relief package, alongside the recently proposed $2.25 trillion in infrastructure projects, there is growing concern about the impact these programs could have on inflation and interest rates globally. In the investment world, we have been operating amid declining rates and low inflation for so long that few may realize the impact rising rates would have on investment returns.

ESG conscious investors, ourselves included, of course, are applauding this brave decision by Barclays to put their conscience before profit, but they are not the first to do so.

Stop fraud bleeding returns. Fraud from related party transactions, kickbacks and fiddling the books can run for years. The steps to minimize risk are based on 3 governance structures – independence from management is key. Amazing how often they are not in place, especially in some markets.

TwentyFour partner and portfolio manager Gordon Shannon looks at the developments we saw in investment grade credit in the first quarter of 2021 and provides his outlook for the rest of the year.

This recent stability in the rates curve suggests to us that for now the market is listening to the Fed’s rhetoric and as a result the UST market feels better balanced.

TwentyFour AM partner and portfolio manager Douglas Charleston discusses how ABS markets have performed in the first quarter of 2021 and provides his outlook for the rest of the year.