Sharing our convictions

Primary issuance in the European high yield (HY) market surged in June with €21.2bn of supply marking the highest monthly volume on record.

The turbulent start to 2025 has sent many investors seeking alternatives to US assets, but in our view European fixed income can offer more than just diversification.

Last Friday, the European Banking Authority (EBA) published its semi-annual Risk Assessment Report. It is always a good read, as it provides a summary of trends in the banking sector and highlights risks that might be emerging in parts of the banking system.

Are there lessons we can already learn from April’s blackout in Spain and Portugal? We believe so. Electrification lies at the heart of the energy transition. With increased investment, resilience can improve and alongside increased storage capacity, we can unlock the potential of the grid.

Softer US economic data means the pressures on UST yields now look more balanced, but headlines around President Trump’s pick for the next Fed chair are just one reason investors should expect rates volatility to continue.

Recent market volatility has reinforced the value of alpha over beta. While markets rebounded from recent lows, risks persist – from uncertain trade policy to concerns about debt sustainability. But fixed income remains resilient. We are finding opportunities in local currency EM debt, US high yield, and European investment grade credit.

Blog posts about regulation rarely trouble our most-read charts, but on this occasion we think the payback on time invested looks more compelling.

Last week marked another record-breaking year for the securitisation industry as over 5,500 market participants gathered in Barcelona for the annual Global ABS conference, surpassing last year’s attendance and reflecting the growing momentum across both public asset-backed securities (ABS) and private asset-backed finance (ABF) markets.

Despite Israel and Iran exchanging fire for a fifth day, markets seem to be completely disregarding the possibility of this conflict mutating into something serious for the global economy.

Discover the key insights from our Q2 Fixed Income webinar, where our experts explored the latest market shifts and strategic positioning opportunities in a rapidly evolving environment.

In our latest Quality Conversations videos, discover how quality companies—those with strong franchises, pricing power, and unlevered balance sheets—can thrive in uncertain markets. By navigating inflation, shifting economic cycles, and interest rate volatility, these "masters of their own destiny" appear to offer resilience and long-term growth potential.

While tariffs have done meaningful damage to the economic outlook and raised volatility in rates markets, the softening of the US stance has restored confidence in credit returns for 2025.

The latest Labour Market Overview published by the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday morning has raised eyebrows, with some metrics seemingly having deteriorated quite rapidly versus last month.

The US dollar’s reign is faltering, and we believe a prolonged dollar bear market is underway – a scenario that has historically been a tailwind for emerging market economic growth and asset valuations. However, not all emerging equity markets respond equally to the dollar’s decline.

The European high yield (HY) default rate spiked higher in May with the largest monthly default volume on record (€6bn).

As markets digest and speculate about the implications of the Trump administration’s 1,000+ page One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), new details are beginning to emerge.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will be alone this week in delivering its latest monetary policy decision, with the next Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan meetings not until the week commencing June 16.

Over the last couple weeks, we have seen an ongoing increase in government bond yields across the major global economies, with a particular focus on Japan as yields on longer dated Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have moved sharply higher.

From deep dives into state and federal probes, to conversations with corporate clients and health plan auditors, our investigative analyst helped identify early warning signs of UnitedHealth Group’ s shift from market leader to a company facing regulatory liability. This case study highlights the benefits that former investigative journalists bring to the Quality Growth research process.

Monday was a somewhat eventful day for markets with several headlines in the US and Europe. Risk assets did not necessarily reflect the eventfulness of the day, finishing virtually unchanged, while rates had a volatile day that ultimately produced a sizeable rally.

Markets inevitably shift, but global diversification endures. A thoughtfully constructed portfolio that combines leading US and non-US companies can offer meaningful advantages to long-term investors: enhanced performance potential, compelling valuations and access to growth industries where the US lags.

The question for investors now is how much of the macro risk remains, and how well that risk is being reflected in asset valuations.

Thus far in 2025, the prevailing and overriding topic of conversation amongst economists and market participants has been tariffs and what they might mean for the global macro outlook.

European banks are coming to the end of the Q1 2025 reporting season, and on the surface there are multiple headwinds to contend with.