Macroeconomics

Les investisseurs sont en mode attentiste face à de nombreux facteurs en évolution. Dans le dernier Investors’ Outlook, nos experts de la Boutique Multi Asset partagent leurs points de vue.

In the US and Japan, monetary policy is expected to support fiscal policy, even when central banks have other plans. Federal Reserve “Fed” Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's reform plans conflict with US President Donald Trump's preference for low rates, and the Bank of Japan's efforts to normalize policy clash with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's economic agenda.

Vontobel’s experts discuss how geopolitics, inflation and credit are shaping the outlook for fixed income, exploring the impact of the Middle East crisis, diverging paths between the U.S. and Europe, and where value opportunities may emerge across credit markets.

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

La volatilité a été bien présente depuis le début de l’année, avec une montée des tensions géopolitiques et les craintes croissantes de bouleversements liés à l’IA, mais une petite taille sur les marchés peut s’avérer bénéfique. Le dernier numéro d’Investors’ Outlook se penche sur les évènements récents et les met en perspective.

We have had an eventful few weeks of AI-driven volatility in markets, with markets seemingly swinging from “everyone’s a winner” to “everyone’s a loser” faster than technological progress itself.

L’année a démarré sur les chapeaux des roues, alors que les tensions géopolitiques faisaient monter le volume, affaiblissaient le dollar américain et soutenaient la vigueur de l’or. Mais que réservera l’année 2026 aux investisseurs ? Découvrez-le dans le premier numéro d’Investors’ Outlook de 2026.

Discover the Q1 2026 Euro IG Credit Outlook, highlighting favorable market conditions, robust credit fundamentals, AI-driven growth, and strategic investment opportunities in key sectors and maturities. Gain insights to navigate the evolving corporate bond landscape effectively.

For global bond investors, predictable central bank activities are an important component of long-term strategy. But the Trump administration’s unprecedented pressure on the Fed, including a criminal probe of Chair Jerome Powell, is driving investor fears about the independence of the world’s most important central bank and the reliability of monetary policy.

Explore the Global Credit Outlook 2026: A concise overview of key trends in global credit markets, from macroeconomic shifts and corporate fundamentals to AI-driven investments and market opportunities. Gain insights to navigate the year ahead effectively.

It is the nature of financial markets that the trends and risks investors have their eye on at the start of the year are seldom the trends and risks they have their eye on by the end. Below is a selection of charts depicting some key trends we have seen develop in 2025, all of which we believe will have implications for investors heading into 2026.

As we approach 2026, Fixed Income markets are shaped by weaker fundamentals, though lower uncertainty may reduce the likelihood of a catastrophic decline. That said, volatility will remain a defining feature. We believe the year ahead holds great potential for active managers who remain steady at the wheel: cautious but nimble.